FanPost

Updated offseason plan...

Well, now that things are beginning to be a LITTLE more clear (for instance, it looks like Torii is going to get too much for us at this point) I thought I'd offer up my full 2008 plan, the updated version.  Feel free to offer your thoughts/suggestions.  Obviously some of these we just don't know if they will happen/whether the other teams will do it, but hopefully I have gauged fair value properly here.  It begins with a few keys to me:

  1. Johan Santana.  Everything begins and ends with him to me.  You decide whether you can/want to keep him and if you can, everything flows from there.  If you can't, you see what positions you fill FROM him, and then go from there.  I personally think he means too much to lose.  This is the best pitcher on the planet.  When you have a guy that good, you don't let him go.  Especially not when he's just NOW entering his real prime.  And him coupled with Liriano/Garza could be a DYNAMITE 1-2-3 for the next 5 years.  We're talking possibly historic good.  At LEAST the best 1-2-3 in baseball if things pan out realistically.  I do everything I can to keep/extend him right now!
  2. Torii Hunter.  Torii has meant a lot to the organization, and it's too bad something wasn't worked out, but at this point we have to face reality.  He is likely going to draw more than we can afford.  And he's not worth a 5 or 6 year contract for upwards of $16 M/year.  Let him walk and focus on other guys like Mike Cameron.  I posted it previously, but I actually think this amphetamine thing to me is GOOD for the Twins.  First, I don't see amphetamines as a big performance-enhancer (like steroids).  Second, Cameron's cost now goes down even further.  Third, he will be fresher now with only playing 137 games max.  Personally, I'd much prefer Cameron at $5 M to 7 M per year than Torii at 15-16 M per year or Rowand for 12 M.  Plus Cameron won't require a longterm commitment.  One would think 3/$20 M could get it done, which would fit the Twins great.  One of Benson/Revere could well be ready by 2011 when Cameron would be done.  He is now my top offseason priority.  And yes, you need to have someone replace him in CF for the first 25 games.  I would advocate signing a lesser CF like Alexei Ramirez from Cuba who could probably be had relatively cheaply, but who could also conceivably platoon with Kubel at LF/DH.  You just kind of play a bit of musical chairs for the first 25 games.
  3. 3b is obviously a key.  Probably the next biggest key to me.  FA is pretty weak here.  Really, Lowell is the only pretty sure bet in the group, and there's no way the Twins are able to win a bid for him.  So that leaves the trade route.  The most interesting scenario to me (obviously we don't know how the dominoes will fall) is the Dodgers.  If Torre is hired, which looks likely, and ARod goes to LA (a good chance in my mind, at least) that certainly makes Laroche expendable.  He is a wonderful player, and cheap, and Colletti loves his vets, like his mentor Brian Sabean.  Which is stupid, but I digress... Would the Dodgers move a couple "youths" in Laroche and Meloan for Nathan and a lesser prospect?  If they would, there you go.  The Dodgers would have a sick pen with Nathan/Broxton/Saito, and they'd need that with Torre around.  He will abuse those guys to no end.  In the alternative, you could move Nathan to a team like the D'Backs, who could stand to shore up that pen (just move Valverde to setup).  In return, the Twins could get Tracy and another bat, or arm.  I like the Dodgers' scenario best though.
  4. DH.  There's no question that DH has been another black hole for the Twins for quite some time.  There are FA options, though most of them carry risk.  Piazza and Sweeney being two of them.  Perhaps another possibility is getting a guy like Quentin, who's value is low, and using him some at LF/DH with Kubel.  Or Ramirez, as listed above.  Either way, this must be solved.  
  5. Bench bat.  This is a big key too.  For years the Twins have needed to upgrade the bench.  They finally have that opportunity after cutting some deadweight this year in LRod/Ford.  But they still must find UPGRADES.  My ideal solution, if he'll accept, is Mike Sweeney.  He's known to like Minnesota, hits well at the Dome, shouldn't cost too much, and is not really an everyday player at this point.  Yes, there's some health risk, but he could be a nice fit, and a great vet presence in the clubhouse.  I also expect Machado to be a HUGE upgrade over LRod because of his position versatility, speed, and ability to play solid defense, at least according to the reports.  Lastly, Buscher or Macri would upgrade the bench as a corner INF, depending on who would win that battle in ST.  I'm guessing it would be Macri.
  6. The rotation.  If you can extend Santana, you don't need to do much else here.  You can let Silva walk with his big contract (might be the biggest on the whole market) and address other needs.  A rotation of Santana/Baker/Liriano/Garza/Slowey could be just fine, with capable insurance starters like Boof/Perkins/Blackburn/Duensing waiting in the wings, and Swarzak on the way.
From the above, going with my ideal scenarios, you end up with this roster, which I think would be damn good, and fairly cheap:

Starters
C-Joe Mauer-$6.25 M
1b-Justin Morneau-$8 M (estimate for arbitration figure or 1st year of longterm deal)
2b-Nick Punto-$2.4 M (I'm guessing he at least starts the year there with Casilla/Tolbert in AAA, if nothing else because of his salary)
SS-Jason Bartlett-$450K
3b-Andy Laroche-$400K
RF-Michael Cuddyer-$5.2 M (estimate for arbitration figure or 1st year of longterm deal)
CF-Mike Cameron-$6.5 M (this might even be high-estimate on a 3 year deal)
LF-Jason Kubel-$1.2M (estimate for arbitration figure or 1st year of longterm deal)
DH-Carlos Quentin-$400K (Rincon plus, if needed, A prospect dealt for him)

Bench:
Backup C-Mike Redmond-$950K
Utility guy-Alejandro Machado-$400K
Backup OF-Alexei Ramirez-Cuba-$3 M?
Backup corner INF-Macri-$400K
Bench bat/backup DH/1b-Mike Sweeney-$3 M
(and hopefully Punto is pawned off by midseason with the winner of Casilla/Tolbert taking over at 2b)

Lineup:
Bartlett-SS
Kubel-LF/DH
Mauer-C
Cuddyer-RF
Morneau-1b
Cameron-CF
Quentin-DH/LF
Laroche-3b
Punto-2b

Total offense payroll: $38.55 M

Rotation:
Johan Santana-$16.5 M (raise from $13.25 as part of an extension)
Scott Baker-$450K
Francisco Liriano-$450K (I'm penciling him in with the recent reports as further proof)
Matt Garza-$400K
Kevin Slowey-$400K

Bullpen:
Pat Neshek-$450K
Jonathan Meloan-$400K
Boof Bonser-$450K
Glen Perkins-$450K
Matt Guerrier-$1 M (salary projection-arbitration)
Dennys Reyes-$1 M
Jesse Crain-$1.05 M (Crain eased in)

Total pitching payroll: $23 M

Total team payroll: $61.55 M  

I think that's a damn good team capable of winning it all.  And we also just came in about $19 M under what payroll could be this year if we wanted it to be.  You could even try to frontload contracts as much as possible to make 2009 and 2010 easier (especially 2009 obviously).

Anyone have any thoughts on this?