Was I really THAT optimistic about Tony Batista? Really?
On February 24, 2006, I made my offensive predictions for the Twins upcoming season. Let's see how bad I really was...
Joe Mauer
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 139 535 170 34 17 96 10 77 64 .318 .403 .488
Real Life 140 521 181 36 13 84 8 79 54 .347 .429 .507
Joe Mauer obviously out-performed my prediction, which is pretty impressive considering my projection was an .891 OPS. He collected more hits in fewer at-bats, and even struck out 10 fewer times. My homer and RBI forecasts were a bit high, but considering his season I'll definitely take Joe's real 2006 over my prediction anyday.
Justin Morneau
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 151 523 139 28 31 104 0 55 107 .266 .336 .505
Real Life 157 592 190 37 34 130 3 53 93 .321 .375 .559
After Morneau's 2005, I thought my predictions for his '06 weren't too optimistic or pessimistic. The power was there, but so were the strikeouts. Obviously, Justin destroyed my predictions, blowing my "realistic" OPS of .841 outta the friggin' water. 70 more at-bats, FIFTY more hits, 9 additional doubles and 14 fewer strikeouts. Justin's '06 was absolutely awesome.
Luis Castillo
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 148 542 166 21 5 36 27 67 58 .306 .383 .398
Real Life 142 584 173 22 3 49 25 56 58 .296 .358 .370
Aside from fewer walks in more at-bats, this forecast wasn't too far off. Obviously I was hoping for a significantly higher OBP, but in the grand scheme of things Castillo had a pretty good season. I would definitely be happy with a repeat performance.
Nick Punto
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 70 168 43 9 3 11 9 14 42 .256 .313 .363
Real Life 135 459 133 21 1 45 17 47 68 .290 .352 .373
Um...well, whatever! He TOTALLY fell short of my home run expectations...
Jason Bartlett
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 137 438 122 21 4 32 11 40 65 .279 .339 .368
Real Life 99 333 103 18 2 32 10 22 46 .309 .367 .393
If Jason actually had played 137 games, he would have destroyed my forecast. Bartlett played, in just 99 games, about as well as he could have, and he was SO MUCH FUN TO WATCH. His defense is better than I expected, and he showed a moxi at the dish I didn't think he'd have in the major leagues. My bad, Jason. You rock.
Shannon Stewart
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 127 424 116 22 8 42 4 31 54 .274 .323 .388
Real Life 44 174 51 5 2 21 3 14 19 .293 .347 .368
I'll go out on a limb and say that had Stewart been healthy enough to play, he might have had a pretty decent season. Definitely not as good as he's had in years past, but it would have been one of those seasons you're glad to see after a guy's had a rough time of things. As it was, it was just another painful experience for Shannon and the fans. Au revoir, Shannon.
Torii Hunter
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 152 541 147 35 24 83 26 52 111 .272 .335 .477
Real Life 147 557 155 21 31 98 12 45 108 .278 .336 .490
I feel like that's a pretty decent prediction, although it's for the wrong reasons. Torii's foot led to fewer doubles and fewer stolen bases, but he still was able to hit for more power. His season in the field wasn't what we were used to seeing, but at the plate there's no denying it--Hunter had a good year.
Michael Cuddyer
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 114 384 106 17 14 45 4 31 72 .276 .330 .435
Real Life 150 557 158 41 24 109 6 62 130 .284 .362 .504
Considering Cuddyer's career up to last summer, I thought my prediction was a pretty fair shake. Don't misunderstand me, I'm happy to be proven wrong! Do it again, Cuddles!
Rondell White
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 143 522 146 31 18 85 1 48 91 .280 .344 .450
Real Life 99 337 83 17 7 38 1 11 54 .246 .276 .365
I was ON THE MONEY with my stolen base forecast!
Jason Kubel
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 86 240 68 15 6 28 3 26 38 .283 .391 .429
Real Life 73 220 53 8 8 26 2 12 45 .241 .279 .386
I'm still positive on Kubel, I still think he can make a positive impact on our offense. Hopefully he's a bit more disciplined than this last year, because he struck out a lot more and walked a lot less than I thought he would.
Lew Ford
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 102 337 94 26 7 38 14 38 51 .279 .352 .430
Real Life 104 234 53 6 4 18 9 16 43 .226 .287 .312
I was hoping to see Lew bounce back from a rough 2005 at the plate. Looks like I was a little off. He struggled again last summer, and I love Lew...so I'm worried. C'mon, LEEEWWW!
Tony Batista
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 120 357 93 19 21 47 6 18 63 .261 .296 .485
Real Life 50 178 42 12 5 21 0 15 27 .236 .303 .388
Rip away. Honestly, I was just hoping for the best...
Luis Rodriguez
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 66 152 40 11 1 8 7 13 30 .263 .321 .355
Real Life 59 115 27 4 2 6 0 14 16 .235 .315 .322
L-Rod rotted on the bench quite often, but there's not much else you can do when you need to win EVERY GAME to win the division crown. It was tough for any of the infield depth to see much time.
Mike Redmond
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 54 124 36 6 2 13 0 11 19 .290 .348 .387
Real Life 47 179 61 13 0 23 0 4 18 .341 .365 .413
I thought I was being fair in my predictions for NBP, but he blew me out of the water as well. He didn't walk much, but he had a knack last summer for hittin' it where they ain't. If he performs in '07 like my prediction for '06, I'll be pleased.
Juan Castro
G AB H 2B HR RBI SB BB SO Avg Obp Slg
Prediction 51 112 26 11 6 12 0 8 24 .232 .283 .384
Real Life 50 156 36 5 1 14 1 6 23 .231 .258 .308
It's pretty sad when my prediction, which was pretty horrific to begin with, gets under shot by a mile. I anticipated a .667 OPS, but somehow wasn't shocked by one 100 points lower. Hey...I might have been overly optimistic on Fatista, but I was...well, I was also optimistic about Castro. Technically. Dammit.
The rest aren't worth comparing, unless you choose to do so yourself. Generally (although not across the board) it seems I under-estimated our offense when it comes to our starters, and over-estimated our bench. This season, I'll wait until nearer the end of March for my forecasts...the end of February was just too soon.