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Understanding Compensation Scenarios for Carl Pavano

"Listen, Sweet don't mind if I call ya Sweet Drew, do ya kid...tells me one more time how I might return a first-round draft pick."
"Listen, Sweet don't mind if I call ya Sweet Drew, do ya kid...tells me one more time how I might return a first-round draft pick."

Okay, here's a quick run down of how things shake out for the Twins if (when is more accurate) Carl Pavano is signed by any of the other 29 teams in baseball.

The first 19 picks, as well as pick number 23, are completely off the board. This means the best the Twins could hope for would be picks 20 through 22 (Colorado, Toronto, St. Louis), picks 24 through 29 (Boston, San Diego, Texas, Cincinnati, Atlanta, San Francisco) or picks 31 through 33 (Yankees, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia). Pick 30 already belongs to Minnesota.

If any of the following teams sign Pavano, the best the Twins can hope for is a second-round pick (although this could be bumped if that team would also sign a Type-A free agent ranked higher than Pavano):

  • Pittsburgh, Seattle, Arizona, Baltimore, Kansas City, Washington (already a 3rd-rounder is the best we could hope for), Cleveland, both Chicago clubs, San Diego, Houston, Milwakuee, the Mets, Florida, both LA teams and Oakland.

After the jump we'll take a brief look at which teams, whose first rounders aren't protected, to see who's most likely to sign our mustachioed maestro.

Colorado: With the return of Jorge De Le Rosa it's less likely that the Twins will be able to snag the best first rounder they possiby could.

Toronto: There's a lot of depth in Canada, eh. Even after dealing Shaun Marcum.

St. Louis: The Cardinals could be in play. The addition of Pavano would give them a rotation that includes Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia and Pavano. That's pretty damned good. Not awesome, but it's very good.

Boston: The Red Sox don't make a lot of sense, as they have a lot of pretty good options already.

San Diego: The Padres might have an open spot to work with, depending on how sure they are on guys like Radhames Liz and a combination of other prospects in the number five spot.

Texas: They have a number of internal options, although we know they're in on Cliff Lee. Failing to sign him, it seems they'd pursue trade targets like Zack Greinke. But if they don't get Lee, they might be content to just spend dollars on a guy like Pavano instead of dollars and prospects on a Greinke-type.

Cincinnati: They're chalk full of guys who have all been ranked prospects at one point or another. And that's not taking into account Micah Owings or some dude named Aroldis Chapman.

Atlanta: I'm not sure there's a place for Pavano in pitching-rich Bravesville.

San Francisco: Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito and Bumgarner. Nope.


Tampa Bay: The Rays are pretty rich in the pitching department already, and even with so many guys coming off their books I'm not sure they'd have enough cashflow to bring in Pavano at the price he's looking for.

Philadelphia: Unless one of baseballs best (and most expensive) rotations wants to get even more expensive by paying Pavano to be their #5 ( behind Halladay, Oswalt, Blanton and Hamels), the Phillies won't be signing him.