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6:02 CST UPDATE: More Potential Twins Picks
Hey Twins Territory, Steve Adams here. We're almost to the start of the Draft, and as of this morning there have been three more names added to the mix since my post by some of the industry's experts, so let's take a look at pitchers Grayson Garvin, Andrew Chafin, and Kyle Winkler:
Grayson Garvin, LHP, Vanderbilt
ESPN's Keith Law predicted in his final mock draft this morning that the Twins would select this 6'6", 220-pound left hander at #30 overall. Garvin has taken a step forward this year with his velocity, upping it from the 87-91mph range to the 90-94mph range. Baseball America has his velocity occasionally touching 95mph. Garvin's second-best offering is a change-up that BA calls "solid-average" and Law says will develop to be average as well. Garvin is ranked 47th and 56th by Law and BA, respectively, but is considered to be a safe pick whose upside is a #3 starter. He's exhibited fantastic command, a must-have for Twins pitchers, and also features a slurve-type of slider that will require more work to generate swings and misses.
Andrew Chafin, LHP, Kent State
MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo pegged the Twins to snatch up Chafin this morning in his final mock draft. Law ranks Chafin one spot behind Garvin, as the 47th-best prospect in the draft, while Chafin places 38th on BA's list. Chafin comes with more risk than Garvin due to the fact that he's already had Tommy John surgery (2010) but he also carries the upside to be a #2 starter, a nice bonus for a late-first round pick.
Chafin's fastball touches 95mph and sits comfortably in the 91-94mph range. His 6'1", 210-pound frame isn't as imposing as that of Gravin, but BA says that his sharp slider has received some 70s on the 20-80 scale which scouts use to grade tools. Chafin's had some arm problems this season, but they all appear to have been minor. He developed a changeup in his rehab from Tommy John that BA now projects to develop into an average pitch, which would make for a solid three-pitch trio along with his solid fastball and potentially plus slider.
Kyle Winkler, RHP, TCU
Winkler's 5'11, 205-pound frame is the smallest of these three new additions, but he ranks 43rd on BA's list and 44th on Law's. Winkler induces a lot of weak contact with heavy sink on a fastball that ranges from 91-95mph and has even touched 96mph according to Law. He also throws a mid-80s slider that scouts think would be more effective in the lower 80s and a changeup. Winkler's control has improved this year as well.
The knock against WInkler is his delivery mechanics, which aren't particularly fluid. Law describes him as max effort and says his delivery looks "like there's too much caffeine in his bloodstream," while BA isn't quite so critical and says that the delivery is actually somewhat deceptive. Winkler's delivery have led some, including Law, to project Winkler as a clear-cut reliever in the Major Leagues.
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Additionally, mock drafts this morning from Jim Callis of BA and Kevin Goldstein of BP had the Twins selecting Sean Gilmartin , whom I covered in my preview for last week, so he's very much still a consideration. Most mock drafts had Oregon's Tyler Anderson going midway through the first round, and Hawaii second baseman Kolten Wong going a few picks before the Twins as well.
One final name that hasn't been connected to the Twins yet and would be a tremendous gamble would be TCU left-hander Matt Purke. If the name sounds familiar, it's because Purke was drafted 14th overall by the Rangers last year but didn't sign after MLB wouldn't approve his $6M deal due to the Rangers' financial issues at the time. Instead, Purke returned to TCU where he experienced arm troubles. When he's healthy, Purke is a potentially elite pitcher who was thought to be in the mix for #1 overall pick along with Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon prior to the injury issues he's faced. He's thought of as the draft's biggest wildcard because of the injuries and potential signability issues, and it's difficult to see the Twins taking that kind of risk. They did take a risk in drafting Kyle Gibson following his injury in 2009, but that was a less severe injury and Purke's asking price will likely be higher. Many predict that Purke may last until the late supplemental round or the second round; if he's there for one of the Twins' supplemental picks, he might make for a better gamble there than at the #30 spot, but that may or may not be a possibility. As it is, draft experts don't seem to even want to offer up a guess as to where the perplexing southpaw will go.
Draft is kicking off. I'll be watching on MLB Network and tweeting about it: @Adams_Steve.
--Steve Adams
[Game Thread is below.]
Is it just me, or does the MLB draft get more and more attention and hype every year? For the longest time I didn't care about what was happening in the farm system, much less the draft. And now we've got a three-day event, just like the NFL. Maybe I'm just growing as a person?
Minnesota Twins draft order
#30: First round selection
#50: Comp (for Orlando Hudson) selection 1
#55: Comp (for Jesse Crain) selection 2
It's a deep draft (so everyone tells me), so the Twins having three of the first 55 picks is an especially good thing this season. They're not the Rays, who are literally picking every-other-slot through the first two rounds, but they're doing better than most. And they're certainly doing better than the Tigers, who don't pick until tomorrow.