Bryz touched on James Shields and the Padres yesterday. It got me thinking about the MLB draft in June, in large part because Shields had draft pick compensation attached to his name. Ervin Santana had the same tag applied, which means that both the Padres and the Twins will lose a draft pick based off of their respective pitcher signings.
As the Twins finished as one of baseball's ten worst teams in 2014, their first round pick was protected and so they surrendered a second round pick for the pleasure of Santana's company. The Padres had no such protection, and as such forfeited their first round pick in the upcoming draft in order to raise Shields.
Where will the Twins pick in the 2015 draft?
Minnesota will select sixth overall. Without the second round pick, or a pick in Comp Round A, the next time that Minnesota will be on the clock will be for pick number 73 during Comp Balance Round B. They'll go again at 80 for Round 3. Round 4 puts the Twins at spot 110, and they'll come up every 30 spots thereafter through the end of the process.
Regardless of our position on the Twins' decision to lose their second round pick for Ervin Santana, it's worth noting that Minnesota's second round picks over the last ten years have yielded exceptionally little value. Nick Burdi may change that trend, as the organization's second round pick in 2014, but the last decade has brought the Twins Paul Kelly, Danny Rams, Tyler Ladendorf, Billy Bullock, Madison Boer, and Ryan Eades. Those players all range from definite busts to guys who look like busts.
Joe Benson flamed out early. There's still an opportunity for Niko Goodrum, Mason Melotakis, and J.T. Chargois in particular, but we're still playing the waiting game on those players. Only Kevin Slowy, Minnesota's second pick in the second round of the 2005 draft, has made any kind of a contribution to the Major League team in this time frame.
- The Padres, in case you were still waiting on this, get their first pick in the June draft at number 41 as a part of Comp Balance Round A. They'll go again at 51, 86, and then at 117 and every 30 spots thereafter.
- Would you rather have Ervin Santana for four years at $54 million, for ages 32-35, and picks 6, 73, and 80 - or James Shields for four years at $75 million, for ages 33-36, and picks 41, 51, and 86?
- A different question: would you rather the Twins had signed Shields at the same rate as San Diego instead of signing Santana?
- Matt Garrioch of Minor League Ball has projected slot values for the 2015 MLB Draft. He pegs the Twins' pick, at number six overall, to be allocated a hair over $3.6 million. Spot 73: $785,200. Spot 80: $705,000. Overall, Garrioch estimates the Twins' draft pool to be just north of $6.9 million.