The late-spring risers and fallers in mock drafts never ceases to surprise me. More data and a string of strong performances (or weak ones) down the stretch will understandable change a prospect's status, but "what have you done for me lately" is the name of the game. Unless you're talking about players with a recent injury history like Kolby Allard or Brady Aiken, and then all bets are off.
In the last couple weeks it's emerged that shortstop Dansby Swanson is the consensus top pick. Here's how the experts have considered the Twins over the last five weeks. Just a few observations on my part, and I'll let you make yours in the comments (where you can also link to additional mock drafts if you find them interesting):
- Comparing this list to last year's tracker, the mocks started to align at roughly the same time: the middle of May.
- While the mocks as a whole appear to have picked up more consistency since the middle of May, the player who will be going to Minnesota has a great deal more variation. By comparison Nick Gordon seemed like a foregone conclusion.
- If you had to pick a top three, Dansby Swanson (SS, Vanderbilt), Brendan Rodgers (SS, Lake Mary HS), and Tyler Jay (LHP, Illinois) look like the three most common players.
- Alex Bregman (SS, LSU) is another common top-five pick, although he slides to the Twins on a couple of occasions. Minnesota does like him, and if he slips to five I think they'd be hard-pressed to not take him.
- Daz Cameron (OF, Eagle's Landing Christian Academy), Carson Fulmer (RHP, Vanderbilt), Dillon Tate (RHP, UC Santa Barbara), and Kyle Tucker (OF, Plant HS) look like the other players vying for position in the top five or six.
|Date||Source||Twins pick at #6||Top five picks|
|May 1||MLB Draft Countdown (1.0)||Dansby Swanson, SS||Rodgers, Cameron, Tate, Bickford, Funkhouser|
|May 8||Baseball America (1.0)||Daz Cameron, OF||Tate, Swanon, Rodgers, Harris, Tucker|
|May 8||FanGraphs (1.0)||Alex Bregman, SS||Swanson, Rodgers, Tate, Funkhouser, Cameron|
|May 11||MLB Draft Countdown (2.0)||Alex Bregman, SS||Rodgers, Tate, Swanson, Harris, Cameron|
|May 11||Baseball Prospectus (1.0)||Kyle Funkhouser, RHP||Whitley, Swanson, Rodgers, Tate, Bregman|
|May 12||Jonathan Mayo (1.0)||Jon Harris, RHP||Tate, Rodgers, Swanson, Cameron, Fulmer|
|May 13||Sporting News||Jon Harris, RHP||Tate, Swanson, Rodgers, Cameron, Tucker|
|May 15||Minor League Ball (1.0)||Alex Bregman, SS||Tate, Rodgers, Swanson, Harris, Cameron|
|May 17||Baseball America (2.0)||Daz Cameron, OF||Fulmer, Swanson, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker|
|May 18||MLB Draft Countdown (3.0)||James Kaprielian, RHP||Fulmer, Tate, Swanson, Rodgers, Cameron|
|May 21||Jim Callis (1.0)||Dillon Tate, RHP||Swanson, Rodgers, Jay, Cameron, Fulmer|
|May 21||Keith Law (1.0)||Kolby Allard, LHP||Swanson, Bregman, Tate, Rodgers, Tucker|
|May 22||Baseball America (3.0)||Daz Cameron, OF||Jay, Swanson, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker|
|May 27||Sports Illustrated (1.0)||Tyler Jay, LHP||Swanson, Tate, Rodgers, Bregman, Cameron|
|May 28||MLB Top Prospects||Dillon Tate, RHP||Swanson, Kirby, Rodgers, Funkhouser, Fulmer|
|May 28||My MLB Draft||Daz Cameron, OF||Swanson, Rodgers, Jay, Tate, Tucker|
|May 28||Keith Law (2.0)||Alex Bregman, SS||Swanson, Rodgers, Jay, Tate, Tucker|
|May 28||FanGraphs (2.0)||Dillon Tate, RHP||Swanson, Rodgers, Jay, Bregman, Tucker|
|May 29||Jonathan Mayo (2.0)||Kyle Tucker, OF||Swanson, Rodgers, Jay, Cameron, Tate|
|May 30||Baseball America (4.0)||Kyle Tucker, OF||Swanson, Bregman, Jay, Rodgers, Cameron|
|June 1||Fueled By Sports||Dillon Tate, RHP||Swanson, Rodgers, Tucker, Bregman, Jay|
|June 1||MLB Draft Countdown (4.0)||Tyler Jay, LHP||Bregman, Swanson, Rodgers, Tate, Everett|
|June 2||Bleacher Report||Kyle Tucker, OF||Swanson, Bregman, Jay, Tate, Rodgers|
|June 4||Keith Law (3.0)||Kolby Allard, LHP||Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker|
|June 4||USA Today||Garrett Whitley, OF||Swanson, Rodgers, Tate, Cameron, Tucker|
|June 5||Jim Callis (2.0)||Tyler Jay, LHP||Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Cameron, Tucker|
|June 5||Minor League Ball (2.0)||Daz Cameron, OF||Swanson, Bregman, Jay, Rodgers, Tucker|
|June 5||Baseball America (5.0)||Kyle Tucker, OF||Stephenson, Swanson, Jay, Rodgers, Cameron|
|June 8||Sports Illustrated (2.0)||Tyler Jay, LHP||Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Cameron|
|June 8||Scout.com||Daz Cameron, OF||Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Tate, Tucker|
|June 8||FanGraphs (2.0)||Dillon Tate, RHP||Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Clark, Tucker|
|June 8||Keith Law (4.0)||Dillon Tate, RHP||Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Clark, Benintendi|
|June 8||Baseball America (5.1)||Tyler Jay, LHP||Swanson, Bregman, Rodgers, Cameron, Benitendi|