FanPost

Tie Breaker Part II: The solution

There seems to be concern over the current "play until you win" tie breaker system by the way MLB is experimenting with the idea of starting extra innings with a runner on second. While I'll admit, playing indefinitely can be a problem, I do not like this particular solution and would like to offer an alternative.

The Problem:

First off, I think I should clarify that I'm not suggesting that we abolish all extra innings. If there's a good rhythm to the game, a 10th inning can actually be lots of fun. However, it gets progressively less fun when it continues to drag out to the 11th, 12th... and so on with no end in sight.

The indefinite nature has some legitimate problems. Broadcasters would prefer a more predictable schedule, as would most fans. Ownership and management would prefer to avoid scheduling complications. Teams would prefer not to have tired/overworked players in the following games. And most importantly, players would prefer to avoid unexpected/unpaid overtime where they are put into unfamiliar roles, e.g. position players or starting pitchers pitching relief, pitchers hitting or running, etc. This increases the chances of injury and poor performance.

The problem with their solution:

Starting a runner on second as it introduces an artificial value on certain skills. Suddenly a speedy base-runner is of the highest importance. A pitcher that can induce grounders for possible double plays is suddenly much better than a strike out pitcher. An outfield single or double is now just as valuable as a home run at any other time of the game. In close games, this proposal changes the skills and strategy at the most important time of the game. Wins would be awarded based disproportionately on a limited set of skills of bench players.

A better solution:

Tiebreakers go to the team with the most bags Taken (written as "T" for the rest of the article). I discussed this stat in some depth in Part I, but here's a quick recap; T counts every base that a runner reaches safely throughout the game. This includes every way you can think of, hit, walk, steal, hit by pitch, fielding errors, balks... anything and everything as long as they are safe when they reach the bag.

Since T is the natural way of getting Runs, it aligns well with the goals and strategies already in place throughout the game. This doesn't diminish the importance of Runs, as those still determine the outcome of the game in most circumstances. 3 runs will still beat 2, no matter how those runs are earned. But in a case of a tie, it makes sense to account for the context in which those those Runs are earned.

Let's look at a few scoreboards to see how it would work in practice.

Team A (A's) versus Team 2 (Twins)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Totals

A's Runs

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

2

Taken

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

8

0

8

Twins Runs

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

Taken

5

4

5

3

4

2

1

5

4

33

In this example, the Twins have consistently been putting themselves into a position to score Runs, but they were only able to seal the deal twice. The A's were practically no-hit, but in the eighth, a walk was followed by a mistake pitch hit for a home-run. Logically, one would say that the Twins were playing a better game as a whole, and if came down to a tie in this situation, give the Win to the Twins. Keep in mind, this does not relinquish all tension of a possible comeback by the A's. It's true that by the 9th inning, they'd know that a couple of walks or singles aren't going to save them in a tie situation, they're going to need to score run to win.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Totals

A's Runs

0

0

0

0

0

3

0

0

0

3

Taken

2

3

5

1

0

15

2

0

3

31

Twins Runs

2

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

3

Taken

9

2

1

3

2

6

2

2

1

29

This is an example of a closer game, but the A's in this scenario were able to grab a few more bags than their opponents in the 9th. Even knowing what was on the line, the Twins couldn't get a runner past first, and thus the Win goes to the A's. Plenty of tension throughout the whole game, even the innings with no scoring are interesting and note-worthy.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Totals

A's Runs

0

1

0

1

0

2

0

0

0

4

Taken

1

5

2

6

3

9

3

5

5

39

Twins Runs

1

0

0

1

0

1

0

0

2

5

Taken

5

0

2

6

1

6

2

1

8

31

Just to show a game where T doesn't matter. While the A's have taken more bags and generally controlled the game better, they ultimately weren't able to get as many runners across home plate. The Twins were able to come back for a win in the 9th, knowing that a tie wouldn't get the job done.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Totals

A's Runs

0

1

0

1

0

2

0

0

0

4

Taken

1

5

2

6

3

9

2

0

2

30

Twins Runs

1

0

1

1

0

1

0

0

0

4

Taken

5

1

5

6

3

6

0

3

1

30

In this final example, the teams are even in both R and T in the 9th, so in this case a tenth inning is warranted. My proposal doesn't outlaw extra innings, it just makes them less likely. Both teams know in the 8th and 9th inning how close they are and how even a walk or stolen base could make the difference, so the skills and strategy to get those T are already in play well before the extra inning.

It is possible that the two teams playing equally well could continue to play on into multiple extra innings, but as every base Taken could potentially change the game, these should be exciting innings. Consider that "defensive indifference" has become part of our baseball lexicon. In the 9th inning of a tied game, it is currently acceptable to just let a runner take a base because it's not worth the effort of keeping him out of scoring position. This is supposed to be the most crucial part of the game and the optimized strategy currently approves of indifference.

Accounting for T actually improves all baseball games, not just the tied ones. Currently, bags Taken are only valued if they result in a Run, or for the individual player's stat line. Steals are arguably one of the most entertaining ways to take a base, but have generally been determined not worth the risk. This is especially true of stealing third as it hardly improves the chance of scoring a Run. We've all heard, "Never make the first or last out at Third," but I love to imagine a truly tied game where any bag Taken could mean the win, and watching for a player trying to stretch a double into a triple or steal third. Make every bag Taken count, make every play have a little something on the line. Even early in the game, these plays have a little more reward, making it worth a little more risk. That's the type of baseball I want to watch. Putting a man on second won't do that.