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Trying to find the most accurate win total projection for the 2019 Twins

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Does the law of averages say the 2019 Twins season will be average?

Tampa Bay Rays v Minnesota Twins Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Ah, spring training. A time of renewed hope, clean slates, and members of the media taking wild guesses about how the season will pan out—guesses that often end up incorrect. As most of you probably know by now, there are dozens of different media outlets and algorithms that try to predict the win totals for all 30 teams before the season starts. I thought it would be interesting to take a bunch of them and see how they average out, to get a more accurate picture of how all the projections think the Twins will do this season. Here is a table so it’s nice and compact.

Projected Twins Records

Projection System Wins Losses
Projection System Wins Losses
USA Today 83 79
Fangraphs 83 79
Bleacher Report 87 75
Vegas 84 78
CBS Sports 82 80
PECOTA 82 80
Average 84 78

Of all six projections, Bleacher Report is the most generous, pegging Minnesota for 87 wins. All six have the Twins finishing with a winning record, and all six have them finishing a few games behind Cleveland.

Sure, it might make for a good BOLD PREDICTION to say that the Twins will win the Central, but it appears that the media and the algorithms think the Indians are the safest bet for the division. We will see, but it seems like even though Cleveland is selling off pieces, they are still the clear favorite.

My brand new, totally awesome projection system, which is quite literally just taking these other projections and finding the average of all of them, has the Twins at 84-78. That’s not bad, and it may mean that we will see the Twins making a run for the Wild Card in 2019. With the active offseason that they had, it wouldn’t be a surprise. What do you think?

Poll

The Twins will win...

This poll is closed

  • 73%
    Over 84 games
    (458 votes)
  • 14%
    Under 84 games
    (91 votes)
  • 11%
    84 exactly, your system nailed it Hayden!
    (72 votes)
621 votes total Vote Now