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Falvey and Levine's relief prospect shuffle

JT Chargois

JT Chargois pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers (Photo by Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)


When a new front office takes over, there is bound to be some turnover among the players in the organization as well. They bring with them a fresh set of eyes and a will to mold the organization to their personal preferences. Most of the time this is probably a good thing, since they have no attachments to any of the players currently in the organization, they can avoid falling prey to the sunk cost fallacy. Though sometimes good players will fall through the cracks.

One of the few early criticisms of the Falvey and Levine regime was their willingness to lose a number of promising prospects in the upper minors because they weren't in their plans. Most of these prospects were, at best, future relievers so these shouldn't be construed as particularly impactful moves, and probably didn't even register for the average fan. But a few prospects were lost for nothing which can always be irksome to a tuned in fan.

The Twins seem to have found a nice relief core this year. Their top 5 relievers (Rogers, Hildenberger, Parker, May, and Harper) have combined for 60 2/3 innings with a 2.52 ERA and 3.03 FIP. They have a healthy 9.1 K/9, a manageable 3.1 BB/9, and an excellent 0.44 HR/9. This has been good for about 1.5 WAR, and led to a win probability added (WPA) of 1.9 wins.

The rest of the bullpen has pretty much been a disaster. They've combined for 37 2/3 innings with an 8.13 ERA and 6.29 FIP. They've actually struck out 10.5 per 9 innings, but with a disastrous 6.9 BB/9 and 2.2 HR/9. Those last two numbers will always lead to a lot of runs. They've held back the overall efficacy of the bullpen with a -0.4 WAR and -1.1 WPA.

We are probably likely to see a move for relief help later in the year, and they will certainly hit on a few relief prospects somewhere down the line, but right now there doesn't appear to be anyone in the farm system ready to step up this year. This makes a few of the moves in the past 2 years more painful for what could have been. Here's a look at a the most prominent pitchers that have been let go before making much (if any) impact on the Twins, and what they've been up to since.

JT Chargois - RHP: DFA'ed, selected off waivers by the Dodgers

Chargois was drafted by the Twins in 2012 out of Rice University, as part of the Twins' bid to add more velocity to their farm's pitching stables. He had Tommy John early in his professional career, but pitched well after coming back, eventually ranking in the Twin's top 10 prospects after a stellar 2016 season in which he got a brief look at in the majors with the Twins. Unfortunately he experienced elbow issues again in 2017; he recovered without needing surgery, but was unable to pitch for most of the season.

Falvey and Levine figured that they could sneak Chargois through waivers during the 2017 offseason since he had pitched so little that year. They were wrong. The Dodgers had their eye on Chargois, and they claimed him and put him on their active roster to start the season. Chargois showed improvement from his brief stint in 2017, pitching a total of 32 1/3 MLB innings last year with a 3.24 ERA and 3.87 FIP.

Chargois started this season in AAA again but was quickly called up to the majors before being shuttled back down. It looks like he'll continue to play the role of relief help with minor league options. He features a typical reliever arsenal with a mid 90's fastball, frequently reaching into the upper 90's, and a hard slider. In early action this year he's struggled a bit with control and his velocity has been down somewhat. The results in his very short major league stint this year weren't as good as last year as he gave up 2 runs in an inning and 2/3, but he is sporting an 2.13 ERA and 3.78 FIP in AAA, looking ready for his next call, whenever it comes.

Luke Bard - RHP: Left unprotected, selected by the Angels in the rule-5 draft, returned to the Twins, signed by the Angels as a minor-league free agent

Luke Bard is the brother of former Red Sox pitcher Daniel Bard. He was also drafted in 2012 and worked his way through the Twins farm system with solid but unspectacular numbers. He had a good season in 2017 split between AA and AAA posting a 2.76 ERA and slightly better FIP. However, when the rule 5 draft rolled around he was left off the 40-man in favor of some other prospects.

He was selected by the Angels, but struggled a bit in his major league debut, posting a 5.40 ERA and 7.45 FIP in 11 2/3 innings before being returned to the Twins where he finished out the year pitching merely ok in AAA. He was granted free agency by the Twins, but the Angels clearly still like him, as they signed him to a minor league deal prior to the start of the season.

He's had a much better campaign so far this year, with a 2.84 ERA and 4.63 FIP in 12 2/3 innings with the Angels. He still appears to struggle with the long ball a bit, but all of his peripherals are improving. He has a low to mid 90's fastball with elite spin rate. His average 4-seamer spin is the 3rd highest recorded in the majors this year. He pairs it with a mid 80's slider which has generated plenty of whiffs and an occasional changeup. He looks like he'll stick around in the majors a lot longer this year, but has options remaining as well.

Nick Burdi - RHP: Left unprotected, selected by the Phillies in the rule-5, traded to the Pirates

Burdi spent most of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery, which made him a difficult player to protect on the 40-man, and also ended up making him an attractive target for the Pirates who got him via the Phillies in a pre-arranged rule-5 deal.

As a prospect for the Twins he struggled to stay healthy, but when he was healthy he generally put up good numbers. He threw his fastball in the upper 90's and paired it with a wipeout slider that generated plenty of whiffs. He had decent control of his pitches giving him the pedigree of a future closer.

We can't be too hard on the front office for leaving Burdi unprotected, as he would have needed to fill a 40-man slot until the 60-day injured list opened up around the start of the season. The Pirates, though, were willing to stash him until he recovered. He started his rehab stint in July of last year and made his MLB debut in September running into some trouble in his first appearance and only appearing in one other game. Things initially looked much better this year, though he had been quite unlucky judging by the enormous gap between his 9.35 ERA and 1.73 FIP.

Unfortunately, after just 8 2/3 innings he's gone down with another arm injury. The injury looked potentially career ending as he was clearly in a lot of pain at the time. But news reports following the injury have been encouraging, as it appears to be a bicep tendon strain, not a ligament injury, meaning he should be able to return without surgery.

Since his service time clock only started in September of last year, he'll still have to be on the active roster for another couple months for the Pirates before they have the option of sending him down without losing him. If he continues to pitch as he did early in the season his ERA ought to improve drastically and the Pirates will probably be happy to keep him rostered. It seems that there will always be a big dark cloud of durability issues looming over his head though.

John Curtiss - RHP: DFA'ed, traded to the Angels for Daniel Ozoria

Curtiss was drafted by the Twins in the 6th round of the 2014 draft. After initially flirting with trying him as a starter, they relatively quickly moved him back to his more suited role in the bullpen. He posted good numbers as a reliever in the minors, though at times struggled with control and consistency.

The Twins liked his mid 90s fastball and slider combo, giving him two tryouts in the majors in 2017 and 2018. Neither went particularly well as his total ERA with the Twins was 7.20, though his FIP was an ok 4.03. Overall he's struggled with either too many HRs or too many walks. When the Twins needed to clear space on the 40-man this offseason they chose to put Curtiss on waivers, where he was enticing enough to the Angels that they worked out a trade with low-level prospect Daniel Ozoria who is yet to appear with a Twins affiliate.

Things haven't gotten much better for Curtiss yet, as he gave up a run and 3 walks in a 2 1/3 inning stint with the Angels, and he's currently in AAA where he is still struggling with control.

Nick Anderson - RHP: Traded to the Marlins for Brian Schales

When the Twins needed space for roster moves this past offseason a 28-year-old reliever with no MLB experience named Nick Anderson probably seemed like one of the most obvious players to move. Anderson had always had interesting stuff though, so they were able to find a trade partner in the Marlins getting fringy infield prospect Brian Schales in return.

The Minnesota native found his way to affiliated baseball through the independent leagues, largely due to some stupid off-field actions in his younger days. The stuff was good enough that the Twins looked past any lingering makeup issues to sign him to a minor league deal. He posted excellent K-BB numbers all the way through the minors, though he was always also much older than the average for his league. He kept it up all the way through AAA, but unfortunately didn't get an MLB tryout with the Twins.

Anderson pitched well in spring training with the Marlins though, making the opening day roster and started the season looking like the most dominant pitcher in the majors. It appears that he'll have the opportunity to stick in the majors until his stuff proves ineffective. His fastball sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and pairs it with a unique slider which is the main focus of the linked article. He's pitched 14 2/3 innings so far for the Marlins with a ridiculous 17.8 K/9. This has been good for a 4.92 ERA and 2.66 FIP, which have just recently inflated due to a couple of long balls. Overall it looks like he's been a steal for the Marlins.

In case you are wondering, Schales, the return for the Twins, has had a good year so far in AA with a .241/.405/.500 triple slash. His 38% K rate is a big red flag however.

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This is not a bad collection of pitchers, and there are a few that I'm sure the front office would love to have back. But hindsight is 20/20, and in order to have kept any of these guys they would have had to give up or not take on someone else. There are a few signings that didn't provide any value to the team that do come to mind (**cough** Anibal Sanchez **cough** Tyler Kinley **cough**).

Anyway, the purpose of this article is not to be overly critical but to provide a realistic assessment of some of the potential weaknesses of the new front office. The boy-wonders seem to have done a pretty good job of team-building this year, which should pretty easily outweigh most of their missteps, but they still have some room for improvement.