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Beating the Odds: A Mid-season Update

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Mid-season win total predictions have the Twins finishing at the top of the Central

Photo by Sebastian Gollnow/picture alliance via Getty Images

Over the All-Star Break, while Rocco was experiencing life, Jose Berrios was bullying his brother-in-law, and Gardy was fishing, BetOnline released an updated version of their predicted win total over/under’s for this season.

I know lots of the expert fans are worrying over the razor thin 5 12 game division lead the Twins currently hold, but the fools over at the betting website seem to be unconcerned. The Twins over/under grew more than any other team’s from the preseason, jumping 10 games, from 84 12 to 94 12 . In contrast, the Indians fell from 91 12 to 88 12 . For the mathematicians at home, the Twins are thus predicted to win the division by six games.

I know that winning 94 games is just unfathomable when you sometimes have two-game losing streaks, but it’s actually much more plausible than you’d think. The Twins would have to win just over half of their remaining games in order to reach 94. Considering the weak schedule the Twins have remaining, and the clip at which they racked up W’s in the first half, I would say this is more than likely. Even with their terrible and infamous two-game losing streaks, the Twins can win three out of every five games and still reach that coveted mark of 100 wins. If you want to read about more scenarios in which the Indians fail to catch up to the Twins (even though the sky is falling) check out TJ’s jinx article from the other day.

Some other notable changes in the odds included the Rangers jumping 10 games, and Detroit falling 10 games. The Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers are all projected for 99 12 wins, and the Twins are next behind them. The lowest total in the league belongs to the sad-sack Orioles, coming in at a measly 54 12 , while Detroit’s 58 12 is the next lowest.

In summary, maybe don’t bet the house on the Twins running away with the division. However, maybe realize that baseball is a very long season and there will be periods when a team doesn’t win 75% of their games. The Twins have put themselves in an excellent position to win the division, and they should be able to make the playoffs even if they limp a little along the way.

Poll

94 1⁄2 Wins?

This poll is closed

  • 74%
    Over
    (225 votes)
  • 15%
    Under
    (48 votes)
  • 9%
    Over but the Indians catch up
    (29 votes)
302 votes total Vote Now