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On Monday night, the Twins watched their division rival opponent White Sox score four of their six runs with two outs to win on the road.
On Tuesday night, Minnesota countered heavily, scoring 12 of their 14 runs with two outs in a rout.
Does this mean two-out rallies are (gasp) commonplace? Is the magic of a rally with nothing to lose something ordinary enough that it might as well not be termed miraculous?
Since two games is a tiny sample size, let’s look at the whole season.
(All stats are from Baseball Reference and are through Tuesday, August 20.)
First, just the Twins
At the plate, the Twins have plated 740 runs over the course of the season, and 281 - an impressive 37.97 percent - have come with two outs. As the outs go down, so do the runs: the Twins have scored 265 runs (35.81 percent) with one out, and only 194 (26.22 percent) with zero.
To some extent, this makes sense, as at-bats result in outs more frequently than baserunners; thus it is more likely that a runner will be on base with someone out than without. Thinking about this, the ascending pattern of Twins runs with more outs seems logical.
The scoring pattern of Twins’ opponents supports this hypothesis. The Twins have surrendered 588 runs this year, and 247 (42.01 percent) have cross the plate with a pair of outs. With one out, the Twins have given up 190 runs (32.31 percent), and with no outs, 151 (25.68 percent).
But as before, two is a small sample size.
Time to look at the whole league.
Yes, the whole league
Thirty teams, runs sorted by outs:
Runs scored by outs in inning
| Team | Total runs | Runs (0 out) | Run % (0 out) | Runs (1 out) | Run % (1 out) | Runs (2 outs) | Run % (2 outs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Total runs | Runs (0 out) | Run % (0 out) | Runs (1 out) | Run % (1 out) | Runs (2 outs) | Run % (2 outs) |
| New York Yankees | 749 | 167 | 22.30% | 291 | 38.85% | 291 | 38.85% |
| Minnesota Twins | 740 | 194 | 26.22% | 265 | 35.81% | 281 | 37.97% |
| Boston Red Sox | 737 | 158 | 21.44% | 270 | 36.64% | 309 | 41.93% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 709 | 166 | 23.41% | 273 | 38.50% | 270 | 38.08% |
| Houston Astros | 696 | 200 | 28.74% | 239 | 34.34% | 257 | 36.93% |
| Atlanta Braves | 683 | 181 | 26.50% | 265 | 38.80% | 237 | 34.70% |
| Colorado Rockies | 671 | 165 | 24.59% | 261 | 38.90% | 245 | 36.51% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 663 | 191 | 28.81% | 246 | 37.10% | 226 | 34.09% |
| Washington Nationals | 657 | 146 | 22.22% | 247 | 37.60% | 264 | 40.18% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 651 | 177 | 27.19% | 250 | 38.40% | 224 | 34.41% |
| Texas Rangers | 645 | 156 | 24.19% | 251 | 38.91% | 238 | 36.90% |
| Oakland A's | 635 | 172 | 27.09% | 211 | 33.23% | 252 | 39.69% |
| Seattle Mariners | 623 | 137 | 21.99% | 251 | 40.29% | 235 | 37.72% |
| Chicago Cubs | 615 | 152 | 24.72% | 232 | 37.72% | 231 | 37.56% |
| New York Mets | 611 | 150 | 24.55% | 246 | 40.26% | 215 | 35.19% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 605 | 175 | 28.93% | 200 | 33.06% | 230 | 38.02% |
| Cleveland Indians | 597 | 142 | 23.79% | 236 | 39.53% | 219 | 36.68% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 595 | 120 | 20.17% | 264 | 44.37% | 211 | 35.46% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 590 | 150 | 25.42% | 207 | 35.08% | 233 | 39.49% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 580 | 147 | 25.34% | 216 | 37.24% | 217 | 37.41% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 576 | 129 | 22.40% | 214 | 37.15% | 233 | 40.45% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 566 | 141 | 24.91% | 221 | 39.05% | 204 | 36.04% |
| San Diego Padres | 562 | 142 | 25.27% | 181 | 32.21% | 239 | 42.53% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 558 | 129 | 23.12% | 230 | 41.22% | 199 | 35.66% |
| San Francisco Giants | 551 | 159 | 28.86% | 200 | 36.30% | 192 | 34.85% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 547 | 97 | 17.73% | 231 | 42.23% | 219 | 40.04% |
| Kansas City Royals | 541 | 148 | 27.36% | 190 | 35.12% | 203 | 37.52% |
| Chicago White Sox | 528 | 129 | 24.43% | 190 | 35.98% | 209 | 39.58% |
| Miami Marlins | 454 | 128 | 28.19% | 180 | 39.65% | 146 | 32.16% |
| Detroit Tigers | 447 | 121 | 27.07% | 159 | 35.57% | 167 | 37.36% |
| MLB Total | 18382 | 4569 | 24.86% | 6917 | 37.63% | 6896 | 37.51% |
| MLB Average | 613 | 152 | 24.86% | 231 | 37.63% | 230 | 37.51% |
It’s clear that teams score more runs with somebody out than with nobody, which fits the hypothesis, but though it varies by team, one-out and two-out scoring are just as common.
Why might one-out scoring be as high? Among other reasons, an at-bat can result in both an out and a run when there are less than two outs, allowing for RBI groundouts and sacrifice flies. Additionally, batters up with fewer outs are considered to be under less pressure - though the statistical correlation between pressure and success at the plate is far from certain.
Still, don’t be surprised when the Twins rack up a couple runs with a pair of outs... but appreciate them just as much.