How many home runs will the Twins hit in 2020?

The Twins hit a ton of bombas in 2019. They hit 307 in total last year, breaking the MLB record. But you already know that. Today, I’ll be talking about this upcoming year. How many home runs will we hit in 2020? Only time will tell, but there are so many factors that will decide how many bombas will be hit. Below, I’ll run through the players and predict how many home runs they will add to the team’s total.

Starting Lineup

Nelson Cruz

Let’s start off with the player who hit the most home runs in 2019: Nelson Cruz. The legend hit 41 homers in 2019, but he is aging. He will turn 40 in July, and this is quite possibly his last season in the MLB. Also, to be quite honest, there are not many factors going in Cruz’s favor that will help him increase his home run total. But, he is Nelson Cruz. So, I think that his grand total will decrease by 5. Nelson Cruz will hit 36 home runs in 2020.

Josh Donaldson

Next, we go to the standout acquisition of the offseason: Josh Donaldson. The third baseman hit a total of 37 big flies with the Braves in 2019, and he could quite possibly do that again. One factor that is in his favor is that he’ll be facing much easier pitching than he did last year: the NL East pitching is a much different animal then the AL Central pitching. Also, he loves hitting at Target Field. The only thing against him is, again, Father Time, as he’ll be entering his age-34 season this spring. I think that he’ll hit 40 home runs this season.

Max Kepler

After that, we go to a player who will be playing in his prime this season: Max Kepler. He hit 36 home runs last season, and I think that total will regress a bit because of one main reason: the MLB de-juicing the ball. A lot of Kepler’s homers last year were just barely over the wall, and with the ball being less bouncy, then a couple of those would-be homers will become doubles. Other than that, though, everything is going his way. With this in mind, I think that Kepler will hit 32 home runs this season.

Miguel Sano

Now, we find a player that shattered all expectations in 2019: Miguel Sano. Sano hit 34 home runs in 2019, and he missed a quarter of the season last year. Now, he probably won’t play 162 games, but he probably will play more than last year. Also, a position switch from third to first might be beneficial for Sano. I’m guessing that he’ll hit 41 home runs in 2020.

Eddie Rosario

Next, we come to a player who had trade rumors swirling around him all off season: Eddie Rosario, the last of the Eds. Last year, he hit 34 homers, and I have a feeling that he will regress a bit this year. That said, I don’t really have much of an idea of how Rosario will do. He’ll probably be affected by the changing of the ball, as many of his beautiful, high-arcing homers will presumably become fly-ball outs. With that said, I think Rosario will hit 31 home runs in 2020.

Mitch Garver

After Rosario, we move to a guy that had a huge breakout season last year: Mitch Garver. In 2019, he hit 31 bombs. This year, he is set to split games with newly acquired backup Alex Avila. If they give Garver two-thirds of the playing time, then I’d expect him to reach 110 games. He played in 93 last year, which is a 17-game difference. With that in mind, I think that Garver will improve on his 2019 total by five. I think Garver will hit 36 home runs in 2020.

Jorge Polanco

Let’s move to an All-Star shortstop who did insanely well in 2019: Jorge Polanco. Last year, he hit 22 homers. This year, I expect him to do a little worse. First of all, the ball is getting flattened, and Jorge rarely hits baseballs 400 feet. Also, he was at bat an awful lot last year, and he didn’t have any injuries. Any injury would probably put a pretty significant dent in his home run total. I think that Polanco will hit 19 home runs this season.

Byron Buxton

Next, we come to a player whose 2019 season was derailed by injuries: Byron Buxton. He hit 10 homers in 2019. When he’s playing, he can hit homers at a steady pace, but injuries have hurt Buxton’s young career. Buxton’s 2020 home run total will depend on one main thing: how many games he plays. It’s hard to analyze it more than that. My rough guess is that Buxton will hit 13 home runs in 2020.

Luis Arraez

Finally, we come to an unexpected contributor to last year’s team: Luis Arraez. Hitting for average instead of power, Arraez hit only 4 home runs. Last year, he split playing time with ex-Twin Jonathan Schoop. Now that Schoop is a member of the Tigers, Arraez will get much more playing time. My educated guess is that Arraez will hit 8 home runs this season.

Starting Lineup Home Run Total: 256 BOMBAS

Bench

Let’s begin with Marwin Gonzalez. He hit 15 bombas last year, but the signing of Donaldson will decrease his playing time. I’ll say that Marwin will hit 14 home runs this year.

This offseason, we acquired backup catcher Alex Avila to back up Garver. Avila hit 9 homers last year, but due to him hitting at Target Field, I’ll guess that Avila will hit 11 home runs this year.

Next, we have utility player Ehire Adrianza. The only way I can see Adrianza getting much playing time is if Baldelli uses him at second base to limit Arraez’s playing time. With less playing time, I can really only see Adrianza hitting 7 home runs this year.

Fan favorite Willians Astudillo had a bit of a down year last year, hitting only 4 homers. And with the current infield situation, I don’t see him getting much playing time. That said, I think that La Tortuga will hit 6 home runs in 2020.

Fourth outfielder Jake Cave hit 8 homers in 2019. He hit 13 his first year, and if Buxton is injured, then he’ll get a lot of playing time. I think that Cave will hit 10 home runs in 2020.

Bench Home Run Total: 48 BOMBAS

Lineup + Bench total: 304 BOMBAS

Others

The only other hitter that I can see coming to the big leagues and hitting homers is Brent Rooker. I predict that he will get his first 2 home runs in September.

Lastly, we just recently traded for Kenta Maeda, and something tells me that he will join the squad and hit 1 home run in 2020.

Other Players Home Run Total: 3 BOMBAS

Grand Home Run Total: 307 BOMBAS

So, in conclusion, I think that the Twins will tie their own home run record. (Also, just to clarify, I was not originally planning to predict a tie with last year’s number. I predicted the starters and the bench, and then I just had to add Maeda to tie the record.) What do you think? Tell me in the comments below.