What might happen to the Graterol-Maeda trade?

Multiple reports are suggesting that Brusdar Graterol’s physical is the hold up on the massive, three-team deal which is supposed to bring actually-decent starter Kenta Maeda to the Twins. But you already knew that, because you read the post Tawny put up before I was even awake this morning. The real question, then, is what happens next?

As I see it, the Twins, Dodgers, and Red Sox have plenty of choices on how to work this out. Not all of them are likely to happen, but lets run through some scenarios, from least-likely to most-likely.

The whole trade is off

Yeah, that just won’t happen. The Red Sox need this trade to happen. The Dodgers need this trade to happen. Baseball as a whole needs it to happen. They’ll find a way to work it out.

The trade proceeds without the Twins

Whether that means the Dodgers add an extra prospect of their own—something they were loath to do—or they find another dance partner. In this case, Graterol stays with the Twins, Maeda does not come to Minnesota, and we’re back where we were three days ago.

The trade proceeds without Graterol

In this case, the Twins would be putting in another comparable prospect. The problem with this scenario is that the Twins don’t quite have anyone else to give up. Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis are both position players, and are too valuable to give up for just Maeda. Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, and Jorge Alcala are the next pitchers in the tier, but they all have higher ceilings and lower floors than Graterol at this point, so will either the Twins or Red Sox be willing to consider them? Maybe Trevor Larnach is the best trade chip I’ve seen suggested here.

The trade proceeds with Graterol, plus.

This scenario could unfold a couple ways. The Dodgers might be so invested in the trade they agree to send Boston another low-level prospect, or some extra cash to make it happen. Perhaps the Twins will be willing to throw in a seventeen-year old playing in the Dominican league, or an A-ball pitcher, or something of moderate value. Perhaps they’ll even throw some money at the deal. Either team could make sure that Boston feels they are getting a fair shake, and make the path forward smooth.

The trade proceeds as-is.

This is probably what will happen. The issue with the physical is a hiccup, but all three teams need this deal to happen. The Boston media is not happy about losing Betts, so anything that makes the trade look bad is getting reported heavily. Graterol’s injury history is well known, so Boston had to expect to see a red flag or two. If there was something of note that is bad enough to throw the whole deal off, its hard to believe the Twins wouldn’t have brought it up—they have no interest in the trade being derailed either. Of course, its also possible the Twins doctors are just that incompetent.