2023-2024 Twinkie Town Off-season Plans Project

Hall of Famer Rogers Hornsby is credited with one of the more famous quotes about the baseball offseason:

“People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.”

Staring out the window and waiting is one way to kill the cold, baseball-less months before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in February. Another way is to play armchair front office decision-maker and tell us in a FanPost how you would handle the big decisions this offseason if you were in charge of the Twins!

The 2023 Twins rode a strong second half to an 87-75 record, an AL Central Division championship, and a wild card round playoff matchup with the Blue Jays. Carrying the baggage of an 18-game playoff losing streak, Pablo López, Carlos Correa, Sonny Gray, and Royce Lewis quickly dispensed with the visiting Jays in an emotional sweep that put the streak to bed and let Twins territory finally experience the ups, and downs, and energy of something more than an abbreviated playoff appearance.

That brought a Division Series matchup with the defending champion Astros. Minnesota swiped Game 2 in Houston behind López’s domination, raising hopes for a series victory and an ALCS berth across Twins Territory, but Game 3 got away early and the season came to an end when they couldn’t scratch across the runs needed in Game 4 to take down the experienced and postseason-tested Astros.

Turning to 2024, the core of a contender again appears to be in place. For the first time in a long time, shortstop is not a position of need heading into an offseason and neither are the front of the starting rotation nor the back end of the bullpen. Around those strengths is a young group of position players that contributed significantly to the 2023 second-half surge and appear poised to hold down full-time roles next season.

As with every offseason, there are needs to address. The 2023 playoff run serves as a measuring stick that points out the gaps that need to be closed for the Twins to truly contend for a league championship and World Series.

The pitching staff was one of the league’s best and López and the high-leverage relievers showed they had the juice required for the October stage.

On the other hand, the Twins’ offense was productive in aggregate but proved to be their undoing in the playoffs. They dealt with long dormant stretches throughout the season, struggled against left-handed pitching (again) and with the bases loaded (except for Royce Lewis), and set an all-time Major League record for strikeouts.

Data from FanGraphs

Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are eligible to be free agents. So too are depth pieces Donovan Solano, Michael A. Taylor, Emilío Pagán, Tyler Mahle, Dallas Keuchel, and Joey Gallo.

Long-time club cornerstones Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler have club options for 2024 that may not be locks to be picked up, especially given the arrival and 2023 success of young position players like Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, and Edouard Julien, the fast-moving presence of 2022 first rounder Brooks Lee, and the uncertainty of the Twins’ television revenue with the bankruptcy proceedings of Bally Sports’ parent company.

Byron Buxton’s balky knee limited him to DH-only duty (when he played) in 2023 and finding another starter-capable center fielder figures to be a priority this winter.

Also on the task list should be replenishing the starting pitching depth and lengthening the bullpen, which was reinforced by starters (Varland, Paddack, Maeda) down the stretch, but was otherwise a bit short-handed and occasionally shaky.

The payroll target should be similar to the past few seasons (~$120-150M), despite the financial uncertainty, which means there should be money available to spend in free agency.

Against that backdrop, what will you do this winter? What is your plan for center field? Will you prioritize spending big to bring back Gray? What will you do with Kepler and Polanco? Do you believe in the young guys enough to hand them Opening Day starting jobs? Would you try to extend any of them before they are eligible for arbitration or free agency? How will you improve and lengthen the bullpen? How will you fortify the roster’s depth?

Below is a guide to the offseason that includes instructions for writing your plan, an outline of all the key decisions that need to be made, and links to some useful resources to help with your decisions. We’ve also put together a nifty template to help you keep track of the players and numbers:

Here are helpful resources for how to make a FanPost (Here is the SB Nation FanPost help guide). Please don’t be the person who posts their off-season plan as a comment. You’re better than that! Blog boss Ben has committed to publishing any completed plans to the front page.

Happy roster building! We can’t wait to see what you come up with!

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[Insert your username]’s Offseason Plan

1. Plan Summary

Give us a sentence or two that let us know what we’re about to see. What kind of plan is this?

2. What is your payroll limit?

(Reference: The 2023 payroll was estimated at $159M by FanGraphs. 2022 was $142M. 2021 was ~$121M. The 2020 full-season payroll was ~$133M)

3. 2024 Guaranteed Contracts

• Carlos Correa – $33.3M
• Byron Buxton – $15.14M
• Christian Vázquez – $10.0M
• Pablo López — $8.25M
• Chris Paddack – $2.50M
• Randy Dobnak — $2.25M (no longer on the 40-man roster)

Total Salary Commitment: ~$71.47M

4. 2024 Contract Options

Decide if you will pick up or buy out the contract options for the following players. Briefly explain your reasons.

• Jorge Polanco – $10.50M (or $1.0M buyout)
• Max Kepler — $10.00M (or $1.0M buyout)

Total Salary Commitment:

5. Arbitration-eligible

Arbitration salaries are not automatic. The club holds the choice to tender a contract to these players and can choose not to offer a contract instead of going to arbitration.

Decide whether or not you will tender a contract to the players below and briefly explain your decisions. Estimated arbitration salaries are from MLBTradeRumors’ Projected Arbitration Salaries based on research and modeling by Matt Schwartz.

• Kyle Farmer: $6.6MM
• Caleb Thielbar: $3MM
• Willi Castro: $3.2MM
• Ryan Jeffers: $2.3MM
• Alex Kirilloff: $1.7MM
• Jorge Alcalá: $1MM
• Nick Gordon: $1MM

Total Salary Commitment:

6. Pre-arbitration on the 40-man roster

Under the terms of the new CBA, players on the active roster earning the MLB minimum salary will be paid $740K ($0.74M) in 2024.

Pitchers (15): Joe Ryan, Jhoan Durán, Bailey Ober, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Louie Varland, Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, Jovani Moran, Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, Matt Canterino

Position Players (5): Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, José Miranda, Trevor Larnach

7. Free Agents

Use the resources below to identify the free agents you would try to sign. Briefly explain why you would pursue the player(s), the role you see them playing for the Twins, and the terms of your offer (years and total monetary value)

FanGraphs Free Agent Tracker

MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent List

8. Trades

What trades would you try to make? Which current Twins would you offer up in trades to other clubs? What players or prospects would you try to get back?

The trade simulator at BaseballTradeValues.com is a handy resource for estimating trade values and coming up with plausible deals that might make sense for both sides.

9. Adding Rule 5 Eligible Prospects

If you’re doing the full 40-man exercise, make sure that you factor in the addition of Rule 5 draft-eligible prospects that you wish to protect. That could include players like INF/OF Austin Martin, OF Emmanuel Rodríguez, CIF Yunior Severino, C Jair Camargo, OF Dashawn Keirsey, and RHP Cody Lawyerson, among others.

10. Extensions

Which players you would try to extend and keep in Minnesota for the long term?

11. Your 26-man (or 40-man) roster

Bring all the parts of your plan together and show us your final roster for 2024. The active roster is capped at 26 players (13 pitchers) and we encourage any over-achievers to sketch it out for the full 40-man roster. Below is a depth chart for you to fill out with your players. If you are playing along with the salary constraints, include your totals. Or, include a screenshot or link to your roster and salary template:

Lineup (#, currently set for 13, but flexible for your plan):

C:

1B:

2B:

3B:

SS:

LF:

CF:

RF:

DH:

BN:

BN:

BN:

BN:

Pitching Staff (#, limited to 13 or fewer)

SP1:

SP2:

SP3:

SP4:

SP5:

RP:

RP:

RP:

RP:

RP:

RP:

RP:

RP:

Total MLB Payroll = ?

Rest of 40-man roster — Optional (14)

27:

28:

29:

30:

31:

32:

33:

34:

35:

36:

37:

38:

39:

40:

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John is a writer for Twinkie Town and Pitcher List with an emphasis on analysis. He is a lifelong Twins fan and former college pitcher. You can follow him on Twitter @JohnFoley_21.