It's Aaron Nola at SEVEN years and $172MM.
For a pitcher coming off a 4.66 ERA, it's a stunning development IMHO. Nola probably ranks behind Ohtani and Yamamoto, about even with Jordan Montgomery and maybe Blake Snell. According to MLBTR, Nola was seeking 7 years and $210MM with the Phillies offering 6 years and $150MM.
Here were the predictions
ESPN 5yrs $120MM
Athletic 5yrs $125MM
Spotrac 6yrs $147MM
MLBTR 6yrs $150MM
Bleacher 6yrs $160MM
Considering how deep the starting pitching market is, to see Nola eclipse both the years and total dollars figure is surprising. Players often seem to take a bit of a home town discount to return to an organization where they're comfortable. This certainly leaves the impression either Nola's agents were able to manufacture panic with the Phillies' front office or the market for free agent pitching might be absurd.
We may see a domino effect in the coming days with a rash of free agent signings. The big question for me is whether or not Nola was able to capitalize on FOMO before it even got started.