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That’s right, I went turncoat.
In years past — quite a few of them — I’ve run the Twins in the SBNation offseason (click for last year’s results) simulation put on by Max Rieper, of Royal Review. Its always a great time. This year, I recruited our own John Foley to take the reins of the Shadow Twins, for entirely selfish reasons. Those reasons being that I wanted to see his take on the building a roster. I’m sure you will see a recap from him shortly. But this event is always a blast, and I didn’t want to miss it, so offered to fill in as a “free agent GM” and take on another team. My choices were the White Sox, Tigers, Angels, Pirates, Giants, Nationals, or Rays. As you can tell from the title, I took on Detroit. They are a team with a lot of young pieces, and I believe most Tiger fans would say their competitive window is just opening. That was appealing. More appealing was their history of signing big contracts when warranted, and absolute lack of committed money going into this offseason.
The basic rules are as follows:
1. All moves made since the end of the World Series haven’t happened
2. You are the new GM of your team, all decisions are yours
3. No extensions (just to keep it manageable.) No PBTNL or Cash Considerations trades.
4. Try to keep things realistic
Entering the sim, I had two contracts. Miguel Cabrera was a no-brainer to decline the option, just as was done in real life, and Javier Baez had a player option for 25 million, which he accepted to remain with the team. Eduardo Rodriguez opted out of his deal, and tested free agency.
Meanwhile I had big challenges. Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter look like the future in the outfield, but Akil Baddoo is... not. So lets get them some help. Spencer Torkelson and Jake Rogers are just fine, but there are a couple holes in the infield, and then there is the whole entire rotation being hurt, leaving, or being just kinda meh. Lots of problems to address and lots of room to play in the money pool. Time to have some fun. My budget was $124,000, which is simply 2023’s payroll plus 4.5%. I thought history suggested that if the Tigers were making a big push to go for it, I could justify a payroll of $150 million, and set that as my goal.
The first move I made was to decline the option on Cabrera, as mentioned. The next move was not really something I was expecting to jump on, but worked out favorably, I think. The Cubs came calling about Matt Manning, and after a bit of back-and-forth, we agreed to trade him for Mike Tauchman and minor league righty Kohl Franklin, the Cubs’ #28 prospect.
Poll
Rate this trade: Manning for Tauchmann and Frankin
This poll is closed
-
5%
A
(1 vote) -
45%
B
(9 votes) -
35%
C
(7 votes) -
5%
D
(1 vote) -
10%
F
(2 votes)
Tauchman is a pretty decent MLB outfielder, so essentially filled one hole while worsening another. Unless you consider moving on from Manning to be addition by subtraction.
The next move, another trade, still saw pitchers leaving the organization, and fielders coming in. The Reds were looking to move an infielder, and Johnathan India became a Tiger. The cost was #4 prospect Ty Madden, one of my most-sought trade chips during the simulation. India slots into second base, pushing prospective starter Andy Ibanez to a utility role for which he is probably better suited.
Poll
Rate this trade: Madden for India
This poll is closed
-
25%
A
(5 votes) -
20%
B
(4 votes) -
25%
C
(5 votes) -
25%
D
(5 votes) -
5%
F
(1 vote)
I then settled my non-tenders, all primarily for financial reasons. Trey Wingenter, Austin Meadows, Spencer Turnbull were not tendered offers, and will not be a part of the team going forward.
Next up was a trade that took a lot of back-and-forth, and probably almost saw both sides go a different direction a few times. I was talking to Houston about trading for a starting pitcher, they wanted to trade Jose Urquidy, and I wanted Cristian Javier for their asking price. In the end, I used Houston’s interest in Colt Keith as leverage to get a slightly better return from Oakland, landing J.P. Sears and Freddy Tarnok in return.
Poll
Rate this Trade: Keith for Sears and Tarnock
This poll is closed
-
10%
A
(2 votes) -
36%
B
(7 votes) -
15%
C
(3 votes) -
21%
D
(4 votes) -
15%
F
(3 votes)
Next came a trade I wasn’t as happy about. Jason Foley was another guy who drew significant interest, and having depleted the farm a bit, I turned him into a pitching prospect with good stuff, close to the majors, and the ability to start, in Rhett Kouba, Houston’s #9 prospect. Foley had been a part of the previous trade discussions with the Astros, and I’ll take the upside of Kouba.
Poll
Rate this trade: Foley for Kouba
This poll is closed
-
11%
A
(2 votes) -
23%
B
(4 votes) -
35%
C
(6 votes) -
5%
D
(1 vote) -
23%
F
(4 votes)
Now its finally time to spend some money, and dive into the free agency pool. This sim tends to overpay guys, and I came out of the gate strong on one of my targets — the best available defensive outfielder, Harrison Bader. Bader signed a four year deal with the Shadow Tigers at $80 million total.
Poll
Rate this signing: Harrison Bader at 4 years/$80 million
This poll is closed
-
14%
A
(3 votes) -
4%
B
(1 vote) -
23%
C
(5 votes) -
28%
D
(6 votes) -
28%
F
(6 votes)
This gives me an opening day outfield of Greene, Bader, and Carpenter, in whichever order you want them, with Tauchman as my fourth guy, and several other serviceable options still in the organization.
But wait, there are more outfielders to come! Back to the trade well, Miami was shopping Avisail Garcia hard, and here is where I miscalculated. I assumed most teams were balking at the salary more than the player. I figured I could trade for him plus a prospect, eat the salary, and then flip him for another prospect. Usually a lot more teams play salary games like that in the sim, this year, I got stuck. Garcia will open the season as our DH. I also got back Yiddi Cappe, a middle infielder that is Miami’s #7 prospect in the trade, and gave up Parker Meadows, who suddenly found himself absolutely buried in the depth chart.
Poll
Rate this trade: Meadows for Garcia and Cappe
This poll is closed
-
5%
A
(1 vote) -
29%
B
(5 votes) -
35%
C
(6 votes) -
5%
D
(1 vote) -
23%
F
(4 votes)
Its time to turn our attention to pitching, with most of the batters sorted out, and back to free agents. We were never going to be a player for Shohei Ohtani (to the Mets for 15 years and $845 million) or Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Giants, 13 years, $480 million.) I think I did okay in the next tier of guys, though.
The first free agent pitcher I grabbed was Blake Snell. It took a bit of back-and-forth with his agent to settle at five years, and $105 million.
Poll
Rate this signing: Blake Snell at 5 years and $105 million.
This poll is closed
-
50%
A
(11 votes) -
22%
B
(5 votes) -
18%
C
(4 votes) -
9%
D
(2 votes) -
0%
F
(0 votes)
After Snell, the next dominoes to fall were three minor-league depth signings for Tommy LaStella, Luis Cessa, and Matt Wisler. Then we signed another starter, Jack Flaherty. He got two years and $30 million, again after a bit of negotiation.
Poll
Rate this signing: Jack Flaherty at 2 years and $30 million
This poll is closed
-
11%
A
(2 votes) -
58%
B
(10 votes) -
23%
C
(4 votes) -
5%
D
(1 vote) -
0%
F
(0 votes)
The the Cubs came calling, again, in the trade market. They wanted to get out from under Drew Smyly’s contract, and offered him up cheap. We ended up sending Dylan Smith back in return. At this point I wasn’t even sure what to do with Smyly, he may end up a starter, or in the pen, but he’s an experienced pitcher for a low low cost.
Poll
Rate this trade: Smith for Smyly
This poll is closed
-
33%
A
(5 votes) -
26%
B
(4 votes) -
20%
C
(3 votes) -
13%
D
(2 votes) -
6%
F
(1 vote)
Another trade that finally happened about the same time also involved pitching, but this time bolstered the bullpen a bit. The National’s GM had spent the entire sim asking me about Sawyer Gipson-Long, and we finally agreed to terms, with the Tigers getting Eli Morgan in return.
Poll
Rate this trade: Gipson-Long for Morgan
This poll is closed
-
7%
A
(1 vote) -
21%
B
(3 votes) -
42%
C
(6 votes) -
21%
D
(3 votes) -
7%
F
(1 vote)
I still had one large hole in the defense I wanted to upgrade — third base. As it stood at this moment, I had a bunch of utility type guys who could play there, but no one I wanted to count on. Right about that time, the Cubs floated Nick Madrigal on the trade market. Rob, the Cubs GM, and I have both been doing these simulations for awhile, and have always enjoyed a good trading relationship. This year was no different. Madrigal can play all over the infield, but has a stellar glove at third, and a history of hitting well, despite a down year. We quickly agreed to a return, Dan Gold.
Poll
Rate this trade: Gold for Madrigal
This poll is closed
-
53%
A
(8 votes) -
26%
B
(4 votes) -
13%
C
(2 votes) -
6%
D
(1 vote) -
0%
F
(0 votes)
I still had one last trade yet to come though. I had made it known throughout the trade that I would be willing to absorb salary in a creative deal, and Seattle had several small contracts they wanted to clear. They were looking to move Luis Torrens, Josh Rojas and Trent Thornton, and were offering to include prospect Lazaro Montes in order to do so. A utility infielder was a good fit for their needs, so I offered them a choice of Zach McKinistry, Matt Vierling, and Andy Ibanez. They asked for both of the first two, and we settled on including Prelander Berroa from their end to seal that deal.
Poll
Rate this trade: Torrens, Rojas, Thornton, Montes, and Berroa for McKinistry and Vierling
This poll is closed
-
23%
A
(3 votes) -
38%
B
(5 votes) -
38%
C
(5 votes) -
0%
D
(0 votes) -
0%
F
(0 votes)
One more starting pitcher seemed like the final roster piece, and Lance Lynn was the best option remaining. He was looking to rebuild his free agent value for next offseason, and accepted a one year, $10 million deal.
Poll
Rate this signing: Lance Lynn for 1 year, $10 million
This poll is closed
-
37%
A
(6 votes) -
12%
B
(2 votes) -
37%
C
(6 votes) -
0%
D
(0 votes) -
12%
F
(2 votes)
With that, the offseason simulation drew to an end, although at various times many other trades had been discussed, and other free agents made offers, I was fairly happy overall with the roster. The payroll ended at $150,720,000 — almost exactly on target.
Here is the projected lineup:
1B Spencer Torkelson
2B Johnathan India
SS Javier Baez
3B Nick Madrigal
OF Riley Greene
OF Harrison Bader
OF Kerry Carpenter
C Jake Rogers
DH Avisail Garcia
The Bench:
IF Josh Rojas
IF Andy Ibanez
OF Mike Tauchman
C Carson Kelly
C/Util Luis Torrens
The Rotation:
LHP Blake Snell
RHP Jack Flaherty
LHP J.P. Sears
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP Trent Thornton
The Bullpen:
RHP Alex Lange
LHP Tyler Holton
RHP Will Vest
RHP Eli Morgan
RHP Alex Faedo
RHP Freddy Tarnok
LHP Drew Smyly
Feel free to shuffle Thornton, Tarnok, and Smyly if you want. That 5th spot in the rotation will likely be taken over by Tarik Skubal and/or Casey Mize upon return from injury. Skubal drew a decent amount of trade interest, while Mize got none at all. Carpenter was the guy that I did not trade that I had the most inquiries into.
Overall, what do you think? Vote in the polls and please leave me some feedback in the comments. I’ll answer any questions about the thought process or why moves did or didn’t happen, as well.
Poll
Rate this offseason overall
This poll is closed
-
17%
A
(3 votes) -
35%
B
(6 votes) -
29%
C
(5 votes) -
17%
D
(3 votes) -
0%
F
(0 votes)
Poll
How many wins would this team get?
This poll is closed
-
0%
100+
(0 votes) -
0%
90-99
(0 votes) -
84%
80-89
(16 votes) -
15%
70-69
(3 votes) -
0%
69 or fewer
(0 votes)
This year was a very different challenge. Firstly, I was playing as a team I am less familiar with, and secondly, I have been busy, and much less plugged into baseball than in the past. It was still a lot of fun, and my heartfelt thanks go out to Max for all his hard work, my fellow GMs for a great time, and to you for reading this and indulging me! Click here for the overall simulation recap from Max, including top contracts and payrolls.
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