Twinkie Town - Twins to Sign Ricky Nolasco?An online community of Twins fans mourning the death of Prince Rogers Nelson.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52554/tt_fav.png2013-11-28T18:35:20-05:00http://www.twinkietown.com/rss/stream/49172392013-11-28T18:35:20-05:002013-11-28T18:35:20-05:00Reactions to the Ricky Nolasco Signing
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<figcaption>Jeff Gross</figcaption>
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<p>The Internet is a strange place. Let's see what some of its furthest corners thought of Ricky Nolasco becoming a Twin.</p> <p> </p>
<ul>
<li><span><a target="_blank" href="http://mlb.si.com/2013/11/28/twins-sign-ricky-nolasco-four-years-49-million/">Cliff Corcoran of Sports Illustrated's The Strike Zone</a> doesn't believe the <span>Ricky Nolasco</span> signing will alter the fortunes of the Twins in 2014, but considers it an equitable deal for a team desperate for competent starting pitching.</span></li>
<li><span><a target="_blank" href="http://aarongleeman.com/2013/11/28/twins-sign-ricky-nolasco-to-four-year-49-million-contract/">Aaron Gleeman believes that Nolasco could pitch to his FIP with a good defense</a>. He goes on to say that while the right-hander has better stuff than the typical Twins pitcher, he's also not a "franchise-altering addition." My biggest takeaway from Gleeman's write up is that the Twins just dished out $49 million over four years to a pitcher about to turn 31 and he didn't really even bat an eye about it. I've come to expect more curmudgeory-ness, sir. Now, what's this about Twins Geek throwing up in the car last weekend?</span></li>
<li><span><a target="_blank" href="http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/11/27/minnesota-twins-agree-to-terms-with-ricky-nolasco/">Brett at Bleacher Nation</a> is a <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> fan, and likes this move because it doesn't preclude the Twins from possibly targeting Jeff Samardzidja but also because it's one more pitcher off the market that wasn't on Chicago's radar.</span></li>
<li><span><a target="_blank" href="http://puckettspond.com/2013/11/27/minnesota-twins-sign-ricky-nolasco/">Over at Puckett's Pond</a>, Collin Kottke points out one of the big confirmation moments on Twitter last night: Nolasco changing his Twitter avatar to the "TC" Twins logo.</span></li>
<li><span><a target="_blank" href="http://heavenlypeanuts.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/ricky-human-exclamation-mark-nolasco.html">Heavenly Peanuts casts aside analysis</a> in favor of noting Nolasco's frivolous use of exclamation marks on Twitter. There is also a dream sequence worth reading in context.</span></li>
<li><span><a target="_blank" href="http://splashit.mlblogs.com/2013/11/27/off-the-market-the-sfgiants-dont-sign-nolasco-becomes-twins-1/">Giants blog Splash Hit looks at how Nolasco's numbers</a> - think less ERA and more swinging strike percentages - would look in Minnesota's rotation. Suffice it to say he comes out looking pretty good.</span></li>
</ul>
<div><b><i>And now for your clueless Twitter comments...</i></b></div>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Ricky Nolasco is going to be playing for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Minnesota Twins</a>, now waiting to see how much they overpaid for him</p>
— Patrick Green (@UltimateSoxsFan) <a href="https://twitter.com/UltimateSoxsFan/statuses/405824326147907584">November 27, 2013</a>
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Nope.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Last time I checked, Ricky Nolasco wasn't a "major" free agent. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Twins&src=hash">#Twins</a></p>
— Dustin Robinson (@DustinKRobinson) <a href="https://twitter.com/DustinKRobinson/statuses/405824280631341057">November 27, 2013</a>
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Anyone who gets $50 million in free agency is a "major" free agent. It doesn't mean they're a premier player or an ace, but they're most definitely "major".</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>/Ricky Nolasco signs with <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23twins&src=hash">#twins</a> /baseball twitter says "finally" /Ricky's K/9 drops below 5 /fin</p>
— Bryan (@bgrosnick) <a href="https://twitter.com/bgrosnick/statuses/405822930036072448">November 27, 2013</a>
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Okay, that's funny.</p>
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<p>Ricky Nolasco would be such a Twins signing at this point. Solid, but not that much better thant what they have.</p>
— Jake Dungan (@MajorLeagueJake) <a href="https://twitter.com/MajorLeagueJake/statuses/405822250122608640">November 27, 2013</a>
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Major League Jake drastically overestimates what the Twins have now.</p>
<p>That's enough for now.</p>
https://www.twinkietown.com/2013/11/28/5155690/reactions-to-the-ricky-nolasco-signingJesse Lund2013-11-28T07:01:05-05:002013-11-28T07:01:05-05:00Breaking Down the Nolasco Contract
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<p>Jesse breaks down the dollars and years on Nolasco's contract, also including Minnesota's new contract commitments going forward and how the Twins could get their money out of the deal.</p> <p>It took a few hours between <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/405823844201422849" style="background-color: #ffffff;">Chris Cotillo's initial tweet</a> and the one from Jeff Passan announcing the details of the Ricky Nolasco contract, but it finally happened. Courtesy of two Passan tweets, here are the specifics.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p><span>Ricky Nolasco's</span> deal with <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Twins</a> is four years, $49M guaranteed with a 2018 option. Gets $12M a year in 2014-17 with $1M buyout on option.</p>
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/statuses/405874675856601088">November 28, 2013</a>
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<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Nolasco's option is a club option for 2018 worth $13M. It can vest and turn into a player option based on innings pitched in 2016-17.</p>
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/statuses/405874899010322432">November 28, 2013</a>
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<p>Here's what that looks like.</p>
<table style="text-align: center;" border="0" align="center"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><b>Year</b></td>
<td><b>Contract</b></td>
<td><b>Nolasco's Age</b></td>
<td><b>Salary</b></td>
<td><b>Twins Total Payroll Commitments **</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>Year 1</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>$12,000,000</td>
<td>$58,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>Year 2</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>$12,000,000</td>
<td>$38,950,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>Year 3</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>$12,000,000</td>
<td>$35,300,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>Year 4</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>$12,000,000</td>
<td>$35,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><i>2018 *</i></td>
<td><i>Option</i></td>
<td><i>35</i></td>
<td><i>$13,000,000</i></td>
<td><i>$35,000,000</i></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;"><br></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><i><b> * 2018 carries $1MM buyout option</b></i></div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><i><b>** Contracts only; does not include arbitration figures</b></i></div>
<p> </p>
<p style="text-align: left;">As of this morning, the only players under contract beyond this season are <span>Joe Mauer</span>, <span>Glen Perkins</span>, and Ricky Nolasco. Outside of Perkins' buyout in '16, it's just Mauer and Nolasco. This should tell you two things.</p>
<ol>
<li style="text-align: left;"><span>Even if the Twins add another one or two multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts to the roster this winter, they still have a great deal of payroll flexibility in coming years.</span></li>
<li style="text-align: left;"><span>The Twins fully anticipate Nolasco being one of the rotation's leaders, and being one of the players who will shoulder the load in turning Minnesota from laughing stock to competitor.</span></li>
</ol>
<div style="text-align: left;">How much value the Twins need to squeeze out of Nolasco in order for the contract to pay for itself will depend on your belief on the cost of a win. Most places I've read seem to think the cost of a win this season is just over $6 million, although it's been argued that it's actually between $7 million and $8 million. Let's be conservative and go with the cost of a win being roughly $6 million dollars.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;"><br></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">At $6MM per win, the Twins would need Nolasco to accumulate 8.2 wins above replacement over the next four years in order to make the contract worth its money. How strong of a bet is Nolasco to average two wins per year? Let's look at his history via FanGraphs.<br><br>
</div>
<table align="center" border="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><b>Year</b></td>
<td><b>2008</b></td>
<td><b>2009</b></td>
<td><b>2010</b></td>
<td><b>2011</b></td>
<td><b>2012</b></td>
<td><b>2013</b></td>
<td><b>Total</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Innings</b></td>
<td>212.1</td>
<td>185.0</td>
<td>157.2</td>
<td>206.0</td>
<td>191.0</td>
<td>199.1</td>
<td>1151.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>WAR</b></td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>18.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p><br>According to fWAR (FanGraphs' version of Wins Above Replacement), it looks like Nolasco is a good bet to be worth the money the Twins are paying him. For what it's worth, in the last six years <span>Matt Garza</span> accumulated just 15.9 fWAR.</p>
<p>In that same time frame, Nolasco's cumulative "open market" value averaged $14.4 million per season. Even for the biggest free agent signing in franchise history, it's possible to see this as a below market value deal for Minnesota.</p>
<p>There is certainly risk in any long-term free agent contract, and that risk seems to be more pronounced for pitchers. While this contract is certainly comparable to the one signed by <span>Edwin Jackson</span> in January 2013 (four years, $52 million) and Mark Buerhle in December 2011 (four years, $58 million), Nolasco is two years younger than Buehrle at the time of his signing and he's also far less volatile of a pitcher than Jackson. As far as consistency can be taken in the world of pitchers, Nolasco doesn't do too badly.</p>
https://www.twinkietown.com/2013/11/28/5154442/contract-details-and-breakdown-twins-sign-ricky-nolasco-for-fourJesse Lund2013-11-27T19:12:56-05:002013-11-27T19:12:56-05:00How Does the Nolasco Signing Affect the Rotation?
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<figcaption>Stephen Dunn</figcaption>
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<p>Wonderful question, glad you asked. Let's take a look.</p> <p>While we're awaiting confirmation on the Ricky Nolasco signing - because it does at this point appear to be a done deal - let's break down how the biggest free agent signing in <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Minnesota Twins</a> history affects 2014's starting rotation. I'll give you a clue where we'll start: with Ricky Nolasco.</p>
<p></p>
<hr class="widget_boundry_marker">
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<img src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/player_photos/l.mlb.com/xt.fss.l.mlb.com-p.13818.jpg"><h2><span>Ricky Nolasco</span></h2>
<h4 class="player-position">#47 / <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Los Angeles Dodgers</a>
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<div class="player_info_body">
<p><label>Height:</label> 6-2</p>
<p><label>Weight:</label> 215</p>
<p><label>Born:</label> Dec 13, 1982</p>
<p> </p>
<p>"I may look like a combination of <span>Vance Worley</span> and <span>Mike Pelfrey</span>, but I'm as talented as both of them combined."</p>
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<p>Earlier in the off-season, Twins General Manager Terry Ryan told Phil Mackey that he would pencil two pitchers into the 2014 starting rotation: <span>Kevin Correia</span> and Samuel Deduno. It's hard to argue. Correia pitched well last season, at least based off of every realistic expectation that was held for him, and he's still due $5.5 million this coming year. Deduno, meanwhile, had to work his way back into the Minnesota rotation but pitched well while he was there. While he's certainly no guarantee to hold onto a spot, thanks in no small part to a very volatile history in terms of consistency and control, his performance in 2013 has earned him the right to lose the job. A number of other pitchers would love to be in the same position.</p>
<p>After Nolasco, Correia, and Deduno, 2009 first round pick <span>Kyle Gibson</span> seems like an obvious answer. Ryan didn't mention him getting a rotation spot out of spring training during his conversation with Mackey, but his ceiling as a mid-rotation arm is still very attainable and his stuff could still challenge for the best among the big league team's starters. Let's put it this way: if Gibson is not in the rotation when the Twins break camp and go north in April, something has gone awry.</p>
<p>At this point we realize exactly why we're hearing that the Twins had the goal of adding two starting pitchers this winter. Holding season-long auditions for the fifth spot in the rotation, with candidates like <span>Liam Hendriks</span>, <span>Scott Diamond</span>, <span>Andrew Albers</span>, and Vance Worley, seems incredibly uninspiring. With millions to spend it's easy to see why the Twins are thinking the exact same thing.</p>
<p>Reports about Minnesota's strategy going forward agree: the next new Twins starter could arrive via free agency, or he could arrive via trade. But we know that the Twins do not want to leave that spot open to an internal candidate. And free agents know it.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Source close to a couple other FA pitchers, including Garza, doesn't think the Nolasco move eliminates them w/ the <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23MNTwins&src=hash">#MNTwins</a>. They do have $.</p>
— Darren Wolfson (@DarrenWolfson) <a href="https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/statuses/405846591610691584">November 27, 2013</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
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It's still relatively early in the off-season and the Twins have landed one of their primary targets. Indeed, it sounds like Nolasco was at the top of Minnesota's wish list for free agent starting pitchers. Let's see how they handle that second starter.</p>
https://www.twinkietown.com/2013/11/27/5153320/how-does-the-twins-rotation-look-after-signing-ricky-nolascoJesse Lund2013-11-27T18:44:32-05:002013-11-27T18:44:32-05:00Sources: Twins Agree to Sign Ricky Nolasco
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<figcaption>Greg Fiume</figcaption>
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<p>Reliable sources are starting to report an agreement between the Twins and Ricky Nolasco.</p> <p>After Chris Cotillo of SB Nation's Daily Dish reported that this agreement with <span>Ricky Nolasco</span> was nearing completion, it took more than an hour for information to trickle in. While the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Twins</a> have yet to confirm this signing, and are unlikely to do so until Nolasco passes his physical, a number of reliable sources are now reporting the upcoming signing.</p>
<p><b>SB Nation: <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/11/27/5153088/twins-ricky-nolasco-contract-free-agency" target="_blank">Twins, Nolasco Agree to Contract</a></b></p>
<p><b>MLB Trade Rumors: <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/twins-agree-to-terms-with-ricky-nolasco.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank">Twins Agree to Terms with Ricky Nolasco</a></b></p>
<p><b>MLB Daily Dish: <a href="http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/11/27/5153148/twins-agree-to-sign-ricky-nolasco" target="_blank">Twins Agree to Sign Ricky Nolasco</a></b></p>
<p>Any contract for Nolasco is guaranteed to break Josh Willingham's current franchise record deal for a free agent. His three-year, $21 million dollar contract on December 15, 2011, was by far the organization's high-water mark in free agency, but some of the more reliable sources projected Nolasco to land a deal in the four-year, $50 million range. <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/2014-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions-1.html" target="_blank">MLBTR's Tim Dierkes believes a four-year, $52 million dollar offer will be near market value</a>.</p>
<p>Nolasco, 31 in December, has been worth 2.3 and 4.1 wins above replacement every year since 2008. His market value, in that time, has averaged $14.4 million per season. Oddly enough, that seems to be right around the top end of what some people on Twitter believe he could be fetching from the Twins.</p>
<p>Stay with us for more information as it develops.</p>
https://www.twinkietown.com/2013/11/27/5153244/multiple-sources-twins-agree-agree-to-terms-with-ricky-nolascoJesse Lund2013-11-27T17:31:24-05:002013-11-27T17:31:24-05:00Cotillo: Twins Agree to Terms with Ricky Nolasco
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<figcaption>Harry How</figcaption>
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<p>SB Nation and MLB Daily Dish's Chris Cotillo has an intriguing source.</p> <p>In the early stages of what could be an interesting Wednesday night, MLB Daily Dish's Chris Cotillo has reported that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Twins</a> have agreed to terms with right-hander <span>Ricky Nolasco</span>.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Twins&src=hash">#Twins</a> agree to terms with Ricky Nolasco.</p>
— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/statuses/405823844201422849">November 27, 2013</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
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At the time of this writing, there has been no confirmation by the Twins or local press. We'll be sure to update you with additional details as they float in. Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press and Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 have been the most active among the local beat writers on this evolving story.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>A <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mntwins&src=hash">#mntwins</a> official would neither confirm nor deny Nolasco signing report. Did call talks with his side "one of the serious ones"</p>
— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/statuses/405830218285211648">November 27, 2013</a>
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<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Different <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23MNTwins&src=hash">#MNTwins</a> official who suggested no news this week: "Never know when the other side is gonna relent."</p>
— Darren Wolfson (@DarrenWolfson) <a href="https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/statuses/405830575971258368">November 27, 2013</a>
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<p>Berardino has had some good preliminary information on Nolasco from the Twins so far tonight, stating that their reports haven't flagged anything on Nolasco, and that Minnesota has discussed deals between three and five years with the former Dodger and Marlin.</p>
https://www.twinkietown.com/2013/11/27/5153078/chris-cotillo-twins-have-reached-agreement-with-ricky-nolascoJesse Lund