Twinkie Town - Twins sign Ervin SantanaAn online community of Twins fans mourning the death of Prince Rogers Nelson.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52554/tt_fav.png2014-12-15T15:49:58-05:00http://www.twinkietown.com/rss/stream/71432382014-12-15T15:49:58-05:002014-12-15T15:49:58-05:00Ervin Santana contract details
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<figcaption>Scott Cunningham/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Here's everything you need to know about the newest Twins pitcher's deal.</p> <p>Handing out big contracts to free agent pitchers is the new sexy thing for the <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Minnesota Twins</a>. One year after the organization handed out $84 million to three different pitchers, they set the franchise record for the biggest free agent contract in the history of the organization by inking <span>Ervin Santana</span> to a four-year, $54 million dollar contract.</p>
<p>After some confusion, it seems that Santana's contract has just one option year.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p>Source: Ervin Santana's deal has no 6th year vesting option. 5th year vests at $14M w/200 IP in '18 & 400 IP in '17-'18 & passes physical.</p>
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) <a href="https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/544561950915842048">December 15, 2014</a>
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<p>Let's tackle that option year and how it could vest after having a look at the year-by-year details.</p>
<table border="1" align="center">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><b>Ervin Santana</b></td>
<td><b>2015</b></td>
<td><b>2016</b></td>
<td><b>2017</b></td>
<td><b>2018</b></td>
<td><b>2019 *</b></td>
<td><b>Total Guaranteed</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Age</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>35</td>
<td>36</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Salary</td>
<td>$13.5 MM</td>
<td><span>$13.5 MM</span></td>
<td><span>$13.5 MM</span></td>
<td><span>$13.5 MM</span></td>
<td>$14 MM</td>
<td>$55,000,000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><span><br></span><b>* 2019 Option</b></p>
<p>The option has a buyout of $1 million, which is why Santana's four-year deal actually guarantees him $55 million. For the option to vest, he must meet this criteria:</p>
<ul>
<li><span>He throws 400 innings between 2017 and 2018</span></li>
<li><span>At least 200 of those innings come in 2018</span></li>
<li><span>He passes a physical after the 2018 season</span></li>
</ul>
<p>How likely is it that Santana gets to cash in on that option? Not very. In the first instance, <span>Santana has recorded consecutive 200-inning seasons just once in his career. In the second instance</span><span>, of the 34 pitchers in all of baseball who managed to hit 200 innings in 2014, 16 were either in their age-30 season or older. Just five (<span>Mark Buehrle</span>, </span><span>Bartolo Colon</span><span>, </span><span>R.A. Dickey</span><span>, </span><span>A.J. Burnett</span><span>, </span><span>Aaron Harang</span><span>) were the age Santana will be when he needs to earn that option (35 or older). Buehrle, Dickey and Burnett pitched the required 400 innings in the last two years.</span></p>
<p>In all likelihood, this is going to be a four-year commitment for Minnesota and it will cost them $55 million. Santana will need to accumulate roughly 7.8 fWAR to be worth his contract in 2014 dollars, and that's a total he's a good bet to hit even if we don't take into account the increasing value of wins on the open market.</p>
https://www.twinkietown.com/2014/12/15/7396341/ervin-santana-contract-detailsJesse Lund2014-12-11T17:16:49-05:002014-12-11T17:16:49-05:00How much better does Ervin Santana make the Twins?
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<figcaption>Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Santana immediately projects to be the second-best starter in Minnesota. How much better are the Twins as a result?</p> <p>Coming out of 2014, the Minnesota starting rotation boasted a little bit in the way of promise but less in the way of reliable performance. The acquisition of <span>Ervin Santana</span> will balance the present and the future out a little bit more, although it should also force the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Twins</a> front office into making decisions on their excess of starting pitching.</p>
<p>FanGraphs features depth charts for every team around the league. <a target="_blank" href="http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=8">Here is how they project the Twins rotation after Santana's addition</a>.</p>
<table align="center" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><b>Name</b></td>
<td><b>IP</b></td>
<td><b>K/9</b></td>
<td><b>BB/9</b></td>
<td><b>HR/9</b></td>
<td><b>BABIP</b></td>
<td><b>LOB%</b></td>
<td><b>ERA</b></td>
<td><b>FIP</b></td>
<td><b>fWAR</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Phil Hughes</span></td>
<td>188.0</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>.307</td>
<td>72.8</td>
<td>3.91</td>
<td>3.89</td>
<td>2.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ervin Santana</td>
<td>191.0</td>
<td>7.4</td>
<td>2.7</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>.304</td>
<td>70.0</td>
<td>4.12</td>
<td>3.95</td>
<td>2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Ricky Nolasco</span></td>
<td>179.0</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>.313</td>
<td>67.8</td>
<td>4.56</td>
<td>4.18</td>
<td>1.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Kyle Gibson</span></td>
<td>153.0</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>.313</td>
<td>67.7</td>
<td>4.54</td>
<td>4.18</td>
<td>1.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Tommy Milone</span></td>
<td>85.0</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>.306</td>
<td>70.2</td>
<td>4.58</td>
<td>4.55</td>
<td>0.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Mike Pelfrey</span></td>
<td>74.0</td>
<td>5.4</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>.311</td>
<td>67.1</td>
<td>5.11</td>
<td>4.79</td>
<td>0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Alex Meyer</span></td>
<td>47.0</td>
<td>8.1</td>
<td>4.5</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>.308</td>
<td>69.6</td>
<td>4.62</td>
<td>4.39</td>
<td>0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Trevor May</span></td>
<td>19.0</td>
<td>7.2</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>.304</td>
<td>69.9</td>
<td>4.84</td>
<td>4.77</td>
<td>0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><span>Logan Darnell</span></td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>5.9</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>.310</td>
<td>68.0</td>
<td>4.82</td>
<td>4.55</td>
<td>0.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Twins total SP</td>
<td>944.0</td>
<td>6.7</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>.309</td>
<td>69.4</td>
<td>4.39</td>
<td>4.18</td>
<td>8.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The projected wins above replacement are up by roughly two wins. You could quite easily quibble about the system, which tends to regress to the mean, but in 2013 and 2014 Santana has posted 2.9 and 2.8 fWAR. It wouldn't surprise me to see Twins starters come in closer to 12 wins in 2015 rather than 8.8.</p>
<p>In total, FanGraphs gives Minnesota 29.6 wins above replacement as a team, which would equate to a 77-win team. That's quite easily a .500 ball club if one or two things go well and not too much goes terribly wrong.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the signing of Santana makes the Twins better because it banks on experience over potential. It's great to believe in Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Alex Meyer, Jose Berrios, and <span>Kohl Stewart</span>, but the chances of even two of them panning out to be as good as we'd like them to be fall between slim and slimmer. Good teams will find a balance between productive, effective veterans, and prospects with little to no experience, and the Twins accomplished that today.</p>
<p>Minnesota isn't ready to compete, but they've taken a step in the right direction. There is now the challenge of how to find innings for the young pitchers who need them, but that's a good problem to have. Now let's see how the team plans to clear what's become something of a log jam.</p>
https://www.twinkietown.com/2014/12/11/7378535/how-much-better-does-ervin-santana-make-the-twinsJesse Lund2014-12-11T14:24:01-05:002014-12-11T14:24:01-05:00Twins to sign Ervin Santana
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<figcaption>Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Minnesota Twins have made their big splash.</p> <p>Multiple sources are reporting that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Twins</a> and <span>Ervin Santana</span> have agreed on a contract that will pay him $54 million over four years. Santana, who will be 32 in very short order, will receive $13.25 million per season through 2018.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Source: E. Santana deal with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Twins?src=hash">#Twins</a> is actually four years, $55M. Includes $14M vesting option for fifth year or $1M buyout. Max out: 5/68.</p>
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/543128718516842496">December 11, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
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<p>For those of you who wanted Terry Ryan and company to make a splash, they accomplished that with this move. While there is always risk in long-term deals, especially pitchers on the wrong side of 30, Santana was considered by most of the industry to be the best of the second-tier starters available - behind <span>Max Scherzer</span>, <span>Jon Lester</span>, and <span>James Shields</span>.</p>
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<p>Santana becomes the Twins' number two starter behind Phil Hughes. The rest of the rotation looks to include <span>Ricky Nolasco</span> and <span>Kyle Gibson</span>, with <span>Tommy Milone</span>, <span>Mike Pelfrey</span>, <span>Trevor May</span>, and <span>Alex Meyer</span> fighting for the fifth spot (and probably roles in the bullpen.)</p>
<p>With the plethora of options available, it's worth speculating over how the organization will deal with this level of depth. Eating Pelfrey's contract isn't a problem, but May and Meyer absolutely need Major League innings. Sending either of them back to Triple-A, in my mind, is a non-starter. That leaves us with Milone and Gibson, both of whom could be trade bait in the near future.</p>
<p>We'll focus on some additional details and add some analysis as we go tonight. In the meantime, how are you feeling about the Twins today? Payroll is now approximately $103 million, and the rotation looks better with Hughes and Santana leading the pack.</p>
https://www.twinkietown.com/2014/12/11/7377847/twins-to-sign-ervin-santana-to-four-year-54-million-contractJesse Lund2014-12-11T08:19:51-05:002014-12-11T08:19:51-05:00On Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/odWw5eiEDjl0I91gg9WGPEyOff0=/0x0:4500x3000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/44319898/usa-today-8076684.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Santana feels like a great addition, and the market would certainly agree. But his numbers are highly reminiscent of Nolasco.</p> <p><a style="font-size: 12px;" href="http://www.twinkietown.com/2014/12/10/7374761/twins-and-ervin-santana-nearing-deal" target="_blank">Bryz touched on this last night</a><span>, and <span>Ervin Santana</span>-to-the-<a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Twins</a> certainly seems like the hot issue of the moment. Tweets and reports were flying late into Wednesday night. Let me try to recap some of the important reads for you, focusing on Twins-related material.</span></p>
<p><b><a target="_blank" href="http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_27111232/minnesota-twins-among-four-contending-ervin-santana" style="font-size: 12px;">Mike Berardino</a> -</b> Twins one of four finalists for Santana, along with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">Giants</a> and two other clubs. Notes that Santana is believed to be looking for a deal in the range of four years and $65 million, which is pretty steep for a pitcher of his caliber who also has a draft pick attached to his contract. Regardless, any deal he signs will be worth more than the three years and $33 million that Minnesota offered last winter.</p>
<p><b><a target="_blank" href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24879938/twins-trying-to-hard-to-bring-ervin-santana-into-fold-bid-is-four-years" style="font-size: 12px;">Jon Heyman</a> - </b>Heyman believes that the Twins are "pushing hard" on Santana, and have put in a four-year offer in the neighborhood of $50 million. He names the Giants and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.royalsreview.com/">Royals</a> as two of the other teams in contention for Santana.</p>
<p><b><a target="_blank" href="http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Should_the_Twins_be_interested_in_Ervin_Santana121014" style="font-size: 12px;">Derek Wetmore</a> - </b>Santana is a clear upgrade over everyone in the current rotation except Phil Hughes. Yep.</p>
<blockquote lang="en" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>One certainty: if Ervin Santana chooses the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MNTwins?src=hash">#MNTwins</a>, it won't be for less than what Nolasco got last year.</p>
— Darren Wolfson (@DarrenWolfson) <a href="https://twitter.com/DarrenWolfson/status/542911605009580032">December 11, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
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<p>It's worth noting that, at least by the stat line, there are a lot of similarities between Ervin Santana and <span>Ricky Nolasco</span>. They're born just one day apart (Ervin's birthday is December 12, 1982; Ricky's is December 13, 1982), meaning they're both heading into their age-32 seasons. Santana throws a little harder, shows more emotion on the mound, and has a great slider; Nolasco is a cooler presence and offers a four-pitch mix. But over the last three years, which includes a bad season for each Santana (2012) and Nolasco (2014), have a look for yourself:</p>
<table align="center" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><b>2012 - 2014</b></td>
<td><b>GS</b></td>
<td><b>IP</b></td>
<td><b>K/9</b></td>
<td><b>BB/9</b></td>
<td><b>HR/9</b></td>
<td><b>BABIP</b></td>
<td><b>LOB%</b></td>
<td><b>GB%</b></td>
<td><b>HR/FB</b></td>
<td><b>ERA</b></td>
<td><b>FIP</b></td>
<td><b>xFIP</b></td>
<td><b>fWAR</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ricky Nolasco</td>
<td>91</td>
<td>549.1</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>.318</td>
<td>70.0</td>
<td>43.9</td>
<td>9.8</td>
<td>4.46</td>
<td>3.80</td>
<td>3.90</td>
<td>6.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ervin Santana</td>
<td>93</td>
<td>585</td>
<td>7.3</td>
<td>2.7</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>.276</td>
<td>72.9</td>
<td>44.2</td>
<td>13.6</td>
<td>4.06</td>
<td>4.27</td>
<td>3.86</td>
<td>4.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>I'll admit that Nolasco and Santana feel like different pitchers. And they are. They just seem to garner pretty similar results, <span>down to even better measures of strikeout percentages and swinging strike rates</span><span>. It doesn't change the fact that I like Santana better as a pitcher, and that the Twins would be certifiably better with him in the rotation in 2015, but it does make me wonder just how much I'd be happy for the Twins to give up to secure his services. He'll have a worse outfield defense behind him than he did in Atlanta (or Kansas City, for that matter), and a four-year contract means he'd be on the payroll through his age-35 season.</span></p>
<p>It's hard to have it both ways: getting better, and not paying too much to do it on the open market. <a href="http://www.twinkietown.com/2014/12/1/7316253/the-siren-song-and-the-free-agent-market" target="_blank">I said last week that I'm not immune to the siren song</a>, and even after seeing those numbers I still like the feel of Ervin Santana in the rotation.</p>
<p>Nothing was written in stone as beat writers fell asleep in the lobby of the hotel last night. But it sounds like Santana's new home could be announced today. Stay tuned.</p>
https://www.twinkietown.com/2014/12/11/7375993/ervin-santana-minnesota-twins-ricky-nolascoJesse Lund2014-12-10T20:13:38-05:002014-12-10T20:13:38-05:00Twins Showing Interest In Ervin Santana
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<figcaption>Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>He becomes yet another pitcher the team is considering. </p> <p>It sounds like the Twins were nearing a deal with Ervin Santana, according to Joel Sherman. However, Sherman later deleted that tweet and replaced it with this.</p>
<p><span></span></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p>Going to rephrase on Ervin Santana: Hearing <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Twins?src=hash">#Twins</a> pushing to get deal with Santana.</p>
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) <a href="https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/542845835461939201">December 11, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<p><span>
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<p>Then Chris Cotillo chimed in...</p>
<p><span></span></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p>Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Twins?src=hash">#Twins</a> do not have deal with Ervin Santana.</p>
— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/542846189721251842">December 11, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<p><span>
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<p>... and then this is perhaps most interesting.</p>
<p><span></span></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p>Schedule change for Terry Ryan has moved up his meeting with Twin Cities media (3 of us) by 40 minutes. Hmmm.</p>
— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/542843901308989440">December 11, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<p><span>
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</span></p>
<p>Yes, I realize I didn't post them in chronological order. Oh well. I'll keep you all posted as more details emerge.</p>
<p><b>UPDATE</b></p>
<p>Well, the speculation of Terry Ryan moving up his meeting with the Twin Cities media to announce some news <a href="https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/542850792890195969" target="_blank">turned out to be a false alarm</a>. As he often does, <a href="https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/542849974019424256" target="_blank">Ryan would not confirm the Twins' interest </a>in Santana, which is interesting considering <a href="https://twitter.com/LaVelleNeal/status/542849939705851904" target="_blank">we have multiple sources</a> that state that <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/542849531688132608" target="_blank">there is an offer on the table</a> for Santana to consider.</p>
https://www.twinkietown.com/2014/12/10/7374761/twins-and-ervin-santana-nearing-dealAndrew Bryzgornia